When opinion polls are bad, politicians claim not to read too much into them or they say they don't look at them at all. When they're good, well, that's another story.

Today Premier Alex Scott will probably want to say he pays no attention to them, since his own standing has plummeted since he first took office last year following the overthrow of Premier Jennifer Smith.

As reports today, Mr. Scott's approval ratings have fallen to 37.3 percent in the most recent Research Innovations poll. That compares to approval ratings of 80 percent a year ago when the poll was carried by the Bermuda Sun.

Of course, polls can rise just as they can fall and politicians ? or anyone else for that matter ? who make them their sole guide are probably doomed. But they do provide a valuable indicator of a leader's standings. The precipitous drop in Mr. Scott's standing should be a red flag as he and his Government move forward.

It as all very different last July when Mr. Scott first took office. He declared that he would be a uniter, not a divider. He acknowledged that the Government had neglected social issues and needed to tackle them. And he promised a more open and transparent approach to government than Ms Smith had practised.

On the whole, he didn't put a foot wrong, and the public responded, in part in the hope that Mr. Scott would be able to put a stop to the infighting and turmoil that occurred in the Progressive Labour Party.

It would have been unreasonable to expect Mr. Scott to maintain his sky-high ratings. Eventually in Government, you have to start saying no to people and you have to make tough decisions that will not be universally popular. Still, the deep drop in the ratings suggests that Mr. Scott is heading in the wrong direction.

It is reasonable to assume that Mr. Scott's declaration that he was "the man" when Tourism Minister Renee Webb resigned from Cabinet did not help him, especially since Mr. Scott came into office as a compromise candidate without an election mandate.

It also showed that the PLP infighting had not ended, even if it has been much more muted. And the continuing dispute within the PLP over the Berkeley project has not helped either. What has been more damaging has been the perception that the Government has been slow to tackle social issues and has been diverted into questions like Independence, which, so far, has little support among the populace. Until the Government can show meaningful progress on issues like housing, health care, education and the elderly, it is likely that Mr. Scott's popularity will remain low.

The Government is also perceived as being arrogant. Mr. Scott's off the cuff comments, like when he said he needed to take an aspirin when listening to Opposition MP Louise Jackson, have hurt him.

Too often, Mr. Scott's attempts at humour have fallen flat among people who see nothing funny about the plight of the elderly, homelessness and the like.

Still, there will not be much joy for the United Bermuda Party in the poll results either. Just as Ms Smith's personal unpopularity did not translate into election victory for the UBP in 2003 so the fall in Mr. Scott's approval and popularity ratings have not resulted in a major jump in Opposition Leader Grant Gibbons' favourability.

This remains at around 52 percent, where it was in September, although the party claims it has risen since July. But the UBP would surely want to see a higher number to be sure of an improved election result.