Election budget?
It is quite difficult to get one?s head around Government?s Budget, which was delivered yesterday.
With the economy in robust shape, it is in many ways an election budget, with virtually no tax increases for the man in the street, and considerable additional spending on a range of social issues.
Finance Minister Paula Cox spent a considerable amount of time dealing with the issue of helping all Bermuda residents are sharing in the Island?s success, and outlined a few initiatives that are aimed at making it easier for young Bermudians to share in the Islands success, along with more money for seniors who find it difficult to make ends meet on fixed incomes.
That?s all to the good, but the Speech also contains a surprisingly intemperate and out of character, for the usually calm Ms Cox, criticism of business generally, with the suggestion that companies had been disingenuous about their commitment to recruiting, training and advancing Bermudians over the eight-plus years since the Progressive Labour Party was elected.
That criticism, coupled with the fact that the business sector, and international companies in particular, were singled out for tax increases, is likely to make the business world slightly less comfortable with Bermuda, the strength of the economy notwithstanding.
Nonetheless, it seems to fit with the Government?s modus operandi, and the recently reported cancellations of work permits or jobs of at least three non-Bermudians in recent weeks will add to the uncertainty.
Indeed, there is a sense that the General Election will be fought on the basis that the Government will throw a never-ending flow of money at social issues, often to little effect if education is any yardstick, and sports, while stoking the fires of resentment towards international business and expatriates, despite their significant contributions to the tax base.
As expected and as usual, Ms Cox was able to report that revenues were higher than expected in 2006-7, spending was slightly higher than predicted and borrowing was lower, both because of the increased surplus and because the pace of Government capital projects ? as usual ? was slower than expected.
With economic growth likely to remain robust in 2007-8, Ms Cox was able to project revenue growth of about ten percent over the original 2006 Budget estimate and seven percent above the revised estimate without raising taxes. At the same time, current account expenditure will grow at the same rate, at a little more than double the inflation rate. This is in tune with the Progressive Labour Party?s economic policies. It has enjoyed ? and deserves some of the credit for ? strong economic growth and tax revenues, but has spent the revenue at about the same or higher rate.
Similarly, the size of the public service will continue to grow, by five percent, or 260 jobs. While there is no doubt that there are areas of the Civil Service that need more staff, some of the demand is due to inefficiency, and one wonders why reductions in other areas of Government cannot be achieved.
That?s not to say there isn?t good news in this Budget. Senior citizens will get a 4.5 percent pension increase and help on health care, there are duty breaks for housing developments ? although little new money after it spent only half of the $20 million allocated a year ago, and a plethora of training schemes for young people as well.
But in the end, while social development and empowerment are indeed central themes of the Budget, and spending is not out of control, the criticisms of business ? although apparently without any sanctions ? and the reluctance of Government to either reduce taxes in a meaningful way or to pay down the Island?s debt ? now expected to hit $335 million by the end of next year, give one the sense of a dysfunctional government which is happy to take the business sector?s money but has no particular love for it.