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<Bz32>Getting worse, not better

Frustration in Washington. Digging in heels in Baghdad. There’s little sign that Iraq’s government of national unity is bringing together the country’s sectarian and ethnic groups — as hoped — so that US troops can leave anytime soon.

By nearly every yardstick, the situation in Iraq is getting worse:

Last month, about 3,500 Iraqis died violently — the highest monthly civilian toll since the war began more than three years ago.

In all, 2,625 explosive devices either detonated or were discovered before they could explode in July — nearly double the figure for January, US officials said. About 70 percent of the 1,666 bombs that did explode targeted US-led forces.

What the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki needs is breathing space to address the issues and move toward genuine national reconciliation. Instead, the government now worries about whether rockets will crash down on the US-controlled Green Zone or whether key civil servants will be killed on their way to work.

The need to stop the slide toward chaos is behind the new US security crackdown in Baghdad. US commanders are bringing in nearly 12,000 US and Iraqi reinforcements to move through the city, neighbourhood by neighbourhood, to arrest gunmen, seize weapons and build public confidence.

One senior US official who was familiar with the planning of the operation said the new Iraqi government was being “constantly distracted” by violence and the intent was to provide the government with a “secure platform” so that it could begin to deal with political issues. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to talk to the media.

But US military and civilian officials in Baghdad believe that strategy will work only if the Baghdad offensive calms things enough — and if Shi’ite, Sunni and Kurdish politicians accept compromises for the good of the country.

American officials used to say that the political process would lead to an end to violence. Now it is clear that the violence must ease before the political process can get going.

The government has been in power only about three months, and no one expected quick success. What’s disappointing is the absence of any movement that could eventually bring success.

In June, al-Maliki, a longtime Shi’ite activist, submitted a 24-point reconciliation plan to parliament. But the programme was little more than broad goals. For example, it offered amnesty to insurgents who renounce violence and have not killed American forces or Iraqis.

But it’s difficult to understand how an amnesty in a war can have much meaning or impact unless it includes those who have killed people.

After months of bitter sectarian violence, distrust among the religious and ethnic groups runs deep.

Minority Sunni Arabs complain that the majority Shi’ites have no intention of offering significant compromises. Shiites and their US partners complain that Sunnis show little interest in overtures.

Many local Sunni leaders in Anbar province remain convinced that they can regain power in Baghdad through the armed insurgency. Hard-liners in both camps appear willing to wait for the day the Americans go home so they can run the country the way they want. — Associated Press