BAGHDAD (Reuters) — Iraq’s disaffected Sunni Arab minority finds itself at a crossroads of sorts after taking part in large numbers for the first time in a free election.Tempting the Sunnis further towards politics and away from revolt will take skilful bargaining by other Iraqi leaders <\m> and US diplomats trying to stifle a budding civil war.

The likely “Yes” result in Saturday’s constitutional referendum may prompt an upsurge in violence; but the vote has also forged a Sunni political movement that, for the first time, will fight its corner in a parliamentary election in December.

Some in Saddam Hussein’s once dominant community complained on Monday that indications the new constitution looked set to be ratified were proof of electoral fraud, abetted by the United States, and warned of a new wave of insurgent military action.

“They want to destroy the real result,” said Hussein al-Falluji, a Sunni politician who took part in the negotiations on the constitution and rejected the final draft forced through by the Shi’ite- and Kurdish-dominated parliament. “This is why they need five days just to count the ballot papers.”

“If it is proven this referendum was rigged I’m sure the security situation will get worse,” Falluji told Reuters.

But, as Saddam prepares to stand trial today for crimes against humanity, other Sunni nationalist leaders said they would accept Iraqis had said “Yes” in Saturday’s referendum and would seek amendments peacefully in the next parliament.

“We expect the constitution to be ratified and this is not the issue,” said Fakhri al-Qaisi of the National Dialogue.

“Now we are concentrating on the next election because I believe a real presence for the nationalist forces in the next parliament will restore balance and serve the Iraqi people.”

There may be elements of a deliberate twin-track approach <\m> violence and politics <\m> to secure concessions for the 20 percent minority; but US officials, trying to extract their troops from Iraq while leaving behind some sort of stability, are encouraged by the Sunnis’ new participation in politics.

With partial results showing an overall “Yes” majority, ratification hinges on the “No” camp not having a two-thirds majority in three of Iraq’s 18 provinces. Two Sunni provinces appear to have produced such a vote but in a third, around Mosul, it has fallen short, senior officials said.

Sunni Arabs have cried foul: “They’re waiting for what’s happening in Mosul,” said a militant nationalist in northern Iraq who claims to speak for underground insurgent leaders.

The rebels, he said, had coordinated a general ceasefire which accounted for the relative absence of violence on polling day and was designed to ensure a big “No” vote in Sunni areas.

But he added: “If the government manipulates things in Mosul and lets the constitution pass the next thing will be general strikes, demonstrations and an increase in military operations.”

Toby Dodge of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London said that showed some insurgents, if not the radical Islamist fringe, tacitly backed the political process.

“This is incredibly important as it means that those deploying violence are doing so for political reasons and can be brought into the process by clever diplomacy,” he said.

“It is the responsibility of those in the Green Zone (government compound), especially the US ambassador, to make the most of this window of opportunity,” he said.

Some Sunni political leaders have offered to mediate in direct talks between the Americans and insurgents. Washington insists it will not bargain with “terrorists” but has conceded that US officials have had contact with militant groups.

Falluji said disillusion with Saturday’s process could mean Sunnis repeating in December their boycott of January’s election which left them sidelined when the constitution was negotiated:

“What is the point of this at the end of the day if they’re going to fix the result?” he said, warning of mass protests.