Yesterday?s report on the latest poll to be conducted by Research Innovations suggests that Premier Alex Scott ? and possibly the Progressive Labour Party Government as a whole ? is making a limited comeback after hitting a popularity low back in March.

Then Mr. Scott?s approval rating for how he was handling the job had fallen to 33.1 percent ? the same place where former Premier Jennifer Smith had been before she was ousted after five years as Premier. It had only taken 18 months for Mr. Scott to drop as far.

And the public?s overall opinion of Mr. Scott ? in effect his favourability rating ? had also dropped to 45.5 percent ? up from 39 percent in January.

The public was also unhappy with the Island?s general direction, with 34.4 percent saying they were satisfied with the way things were going and 56.8 percent saying they were dissatisfied.

Compared to those figures, Mr. Scott must surely have a spring in his step today.

His job handling rating improved to 42.7 percent in May and slipped marginally to 42.4 percent in July, a statistically insignificant change.

In the meantime, the overall opinion of Mr. Scott jumped in July to 55.3 percent, the highest it has been since before November, when took over the Research Innovations poll, although still far from where it was after Hurricane Fabian in 2003.

And the mood of the Country has changed too. The satisfaction level is higher than it has been at any time since November at 46.4 percent.

Of course, these still aren?t great numbers by any stretch of the imagination. There are still more people (47.1 percent) who are dissatisfied with the Country?s direction than are satisfied.

And more people still disapprove of Mr. Scott?s handling of the job (45.9 percent) than approve, while 38 percent of people still have an unfavourable opinion of Mr. Scott.

Since January, the number of people disapproving of Mr. Scott has remained constant at about 45 percent while about 35 percent of the public will always approve of him, no matter what he does.

what has happened since March is that about half of the people ? up to 25 percent of the poll ? who were not sure how to rate Mr. Scott now say they approve of his performance while those who are not sure has dropped to about 12 percent.

In electoral terms ? and it is risky to measure party support from individual ratings ? Mr. Scott need only get to about 50 percent approval ratings to feel fairly comfortable with retaining power.

Why this shift has taken place is a matter of conjecture. To some degree, the controversies over issues like the Berkeley site and the Housing Corporation have abated, while Mr. Scott has been out in public, through televised speeches and the like.

The continued strength of the economy must also be a contributing factor and the Government?s moves to finally crack down on crime must have helped as well.

It is worth noting that Mr. Scott is least popular among those over the age of 55, and this is one area where Government has done the least, so it?s not surprising, but should be a warning to him that this is an area where he must do more.

What should also be clear, given the wide swings that Mr. Scott has experienced in popularity, is that the Bermudian voter cannot be taken for granted. If he or she is unhappy with a leader, the leader will pay, and quickly.