As is usual at the beginning of the tourism season, Bermuda has recently heard a range of sunny forecasts for visitor arrivals.

Tourism Minister Renee Webb recently upgraded her Ministry?s estimates for arrivals to an 18 percent increase for the year. Shadow Tourism Minister David Dodwell was even more hopeful, predicting a 20 percent rise.

Unlike in past years, there are real reasons for optimism, but they need to be put into context.

The tourism industry is coming off (another) disastrous year in 2003 when Hurricane Fabian essentially shut Bermuda down for the last four months of the year. Only now are major properties starting to re-open.

That resulted in a very poor year. Overall arrivals fell by 0.5 percent to 487,318, but air arrivals fell by 9.6 percent for the year to 256,566. That was lower than the 275,009 figure recorded in 2001, when tourism was rocked by the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Any increase this year will have to come from air arrivals, since cruise ships were operating at virtually full capacity last year and there is no great increase in sailings planned for this year.

An 18 percent increase would see 75,000 more visitors come, a large number.

Still, the numbers should rise this year for a number of reasons outside of the Island?s control.

The first is the assumption that Bermuda will not be hit by another hurricane on the scale of Fabian.

The second is that the weakness of the US dollar makes this side of the Atlantic more attractive to Europeans, who traditionally vacation longer than their North American counterparts.

At the same time the weak dollar makes Europe and other parts of the world less attractive to Americans, and Bermuda?s dollar-pegged currency should be more attractive.

Third, fears of terrorism abroad should also make the Island more attractive as a safe and close destination.

Bermuda has been successful in increasing in airline flights to the Island. The rise in competition has seen some air fares decline and this should ease one of the Island?s biggest problems.

That is especially important because Bermuda remains an expensive destination overall and at a time when the US is still struggling with its ?jobless recovery? and the economic picture in Europe and Canada is little better, visitors will be as cost-conscious as ever.

One concern must be whether the Island will have enough beds to satisfy demand in an ever-shrinking high season. More flights are all very well, but if people can?t book a hotel bed, they will not come.

Although several major hotels are re-opening with improved plant, there will be no real increase in hotel beds, and with the former Sonesta knocking down part of its main building, there may be fewer than last year.

While there are plenty of rooms on the drawing boards of various developers and hotel owners, it is unlikely that many of these will be ready until 2005.

Service, not only in hotels, but throughout Bermuda remains a problem. Until all residents treat visitors like guests instead of inconveniences or worse, easy crime targets, any real recovery will be a pipe dream.

And one ?random act of violence? like that seen last Sunday at Wellington Oval, but in an area frequented by visitors this time, will be enough to shatter all those high hopes.