Premier Alex Scott?s slight increase in his ratings reported in polls this week will not cause many to celebrate at Alaska Hall.

That?s partly because the improvement is within the margin of error from November, but more importantly because an increase in an approval rating from 31.9 percent to 33.8 percent is nothing to shout about. In a word, it?s dismal.

What?s worse are his disapproval ratings, which were 52.5 percent in January. That means that half of the population disapprove of the way he his handling the job.

In terms of favourability, which goes more to likeability, the picture improves, but not by much.

Just 39.8 percent of respondents to the poll have a favourable view of him, down from 41.8 percent in November.

And 47 percent of respondents have an unfavourable view ? a ten percent increase from November. That means that people who were previously unsure are now making up their minds about Mr. Scott ? and it is mostly in the negative.

What should be of concern to both the PLP and to Mr. Scott is that he can?t seem to reverse the trend, no matter what he does.

Mr. Scott has two major problems. One is that he consistently polls worse among women. The other is that his ratings among blacks have sunk to less than 50 percent, meaning his own electoral base is lukewarm about him.

Nor does Mr. Scott seem to have much support among younger voters, in contrast with 2003 and 1998 in particular.

People between the age of 18 and 35 were least likely to approve of the way he was handling his job (27.9 percent) and most likely by a thin margin to disapprove (52.9 percent). The same is true for his favourability ratings.

On the whole young voters are likely to be more flexible about voting than their elders. The PLP?s struggle to hold on to this part of the swing vote should be deeply worrying.

The United Bermuda Party?s leaders? reading of their polls and the popularity of Grant Gibbons contributed to his departure last month. This week?s poll, which was taken before Wayne Furbert took charge, shows why.

The UBP has failed to capitalise on the PLP?s unpopularity and perhaps the key statistic there was Dr. Gibbons? inability to improve his own favourability, particularly among black voters.

The figures showed that 39.5 percent of people polled had an overall favourable opinion of him, compared to 37.9 percent last November. Meanwhile, 37 percent had an unfavourable opinion.

But just 28.5 percent of blacks had a favourable opinion of him and 49 percent disapproved.

Dr. Gibbons was not setting young voters alight any more than Mr. Scott either: just 20.6 percent had a favourable opinion of him compared to 37.6 percent who had an unfavourable opinion.

Those numbers, which have been reasonably consistent, seem to demonstrate that Dr. Gibbons was never going to be able to convince a sufficient number of swing voters to support the UBP, while Mr. Furbert may.

The UBP acted and moved Dr. Gibbons aside. So far, the PLP does not seem ready to do the same to Mr. Scott, but it is hard to believe that the rebels who pushed Dame Jennifer Smith out in 2003 will wait much longer before someone challenges Mr. Scott.

The PLP faces two problems. One is that Mr. Furbert is energetically moving into the middle ground of Bermuda politics and is deliberately toning down the partisan rhetoric. That makes him a uniter and a direct threat to the PLP?s popularity among swing voters who are not partisan.

The second is that the election clock is ticking. The PLP is now halfway through its term, and as 2008 ? the last year in which an election must be called looms ? MPs will be aware that leadership fights and divisions cost votes.

That means any leadership challenge must come sooner rather than later.