News that the Alternatives to Incarceration scheme has not reduced prison numbers does not mean that the scheme is failing - it may simply mean that prison numbers would be that much higher if the scheme had not been out in place.

There is no question that people who would normally have been expected to be sent to prison immediately are instead being referred to the drugs court and in turn are being given the option of counselling.

And what is also happening now is that the first people to fail counselling are now beginning to appear before the magistrates are now coming back up before magistrates to b sentenced.

It would be too much to expect that every person who agreed to counselling managed to see the programme through and is now clean and sober. Addiction does not work that way and it can often take two, three or more attempts for a person to really kick a habit.

The greater concern with the ATI scheme is whether the programmes themselves are adequate, and in spite of the avowals of the Bermuda Assessment and Referral Centre and the National Drugs Commission, that remains an open question.

It is still too early to say whether it is working, although the numbers supplied for women referred to Fair Havens are very worrying; of 11 women referred, only three stayed the course. It is essential that the men and women who do complete the course are known about in order to encourage others to stay with it. ATI cannot be known as a get out of jail free card, nor can it be seen as a route to failure.

The other great concern with the prisons is the problem of rising violent crime. The conventional wisdom has been that most crime in Bermuda is in some way connected to drugs. Thus is it has been assumed that if drug use is reduced, then crime will be as well.

Instead the prison population has remained constant even though fewer drug abusers are being sent there. That's because violent crime has risen, and the people convicted of these crimes and weapons-related offences have received long sentences.

There are good reasons for that, chief among them that the public must be protected. But there has been very little work done to determine why people are becoming more violent and in particular are more prone to use weapons.

Any sentence needs to be tied in with some form of rehabilitation to try to convince those who use violence to stop. If not, the situation will just get worse.