By the time this editorial hits the street, the Progressive Labour Party should know who its candidate is for the Sandys North by-election, which has been set for March 4.

Regardless of whom is selected, this contest is already shaping up as an interesting test for the Island?s major parties.

At the national level, it is the first electoral test of Premier Alex Scott?s tenure as Premier and will also be seen as a barometer of the Opposition United Bermuda Party?s performance since the July General Election.

A good deal has happened since then. Dissident PLP MPs, including five Cabinet Ministers, ousted Premier Jennifer Smith, although they failed to place a member of their own camp in the top seat, which ended up going to Mr. Scott, a compromise candidate of sorts.

A month later, Hurricane Fabian struck and the Government?s performance after the storm could also colour the by-election.

On the whole, Mr. Scott has done well since taking the reins of the PLP and the Government. To some degree, he has enjoyed a honeymoon, but he has used it well to pulling his party together and heal some of the wounds caused by the rebellion.

That should be to the PLP?s advantage. Certainly, the PLP presents a more united front than it did before and after the General Election.

As for the UBP, it is hard to determine if it is more or less popular than it was in July. It has remained united and has continued to bang the drum that it is more diverse. And Opposition Leader Grant Gibbons? personal popularity is high.

But with the controversies over the Housing Corporation and the Berkeley Institute having cooled down, at least for now, it is a little harder for the UBP to present itself as the ?honest alternative?.

Nor can it run a campaign against the ?Scott government? in the same way that it did against the ?Smith government?.

But it remains a viable alternative, and could call on voters to ?send a message? to the Scott government that things may be better but giving the seat to the UBP (without turning out the Government) would remind it that in issues ranging from housing to health care, there is still much more to be done.

One factor which could affect the result is the Budget set for February 20. An ?election budget? could help the PLP. But a tough budget ? and there may be some tax increases to pay for the uninsured losses from Fabian ? could work to the UBP?s advantage.

In addition, the often rancorous parliamentary debates that follow the announcement of the Budget could also dent the PLP?s chances and muddy its message.

The other unknown factor is what the effect of the ?Cox legacy?.

Sandys North is the closest thing to a swing constituency in the parish, with a greater proportion of middle and upper class voters than elsewhere. Mr. Cox won the seat with a 200-vote majority but turnout was low for a General Election, in part because Mr. Cox?s own canvassing was limited.

At the same time, Mr. Cox?s long tenure and personal stature made him almost unassailable. The same cannot be true for a new candidate.

What is not clear is whether voters will decide to ?win it for Mr. Cox? or if they will instead feel freer to pick a UBP candidate without Mr. Cox around.

To be sure, the PLP must take heart from the remarkable number of people lining up for the seat and from the increase in party membership, although the latter is not unusual in a by-election when party members have a chance to choose a candidate.

The UBP has the advantage of not running against Mr. Cox. And in Corin Smith, it has a fresh young candidate who may appeal across race and age lines. At the same time, he is something of an unknown quantity.

In the end, as usual, this campaign will be won on the doorsteps and the party which is best able to mobilise its core supporters and get them to the polls will be key, especially if the vote follows by-election tradition and turnout is low.