Past general elections saw the United Bermuda Party play one winning card over and over again - its mastery of managing the Island's economy and public finances.

By contrast, the Progressive Labour Party's support of income tax and the lack of business experience and acumen on its benches meant financial management was a perpetual Achilles heel.

This changed somewhat in the 1998 General Election, because the PLP had moderated its economic stance, had ruled out income tax and had shown that it understood the central role that international companies played in the economy.

Even so, most people before the 1998 election would still have given higher marks to the UBP for economic management. But the PLP's greater focus on social issues won over a majority.

Now, the PLP and Finance Minister Eugene Cox can claim with some, but only some, justice to have confounded their critics.

In spite of the September 11 terrorist attacks and the ensuing recession, Bermuda's economy remains remarkably buoyant.

This was typified by the wave of new reinsurers formed in Bermuda in the wake of September 11. It is academic whether they came because of the PLP government or in spite of it; the fact they did showed how important Bermuda continues to be to the global insurance market.

In addition, the Island continues to boast an excellent credit rating, Mr. Cox balanced the current account budget for four years and until this year had not had to increase Bermuda's debt load.

So the PLP can take some credit for the economy's performance, just as it would have had to take some criticism if the economy was in poor shape. Having said that, the economy and public finances are not in perfect shape.

The economy is overly dependent on international business, given the continued weakness of tourism (and the PLP's claim to have turned that industry around is the whopper of the election campaign).

Construction, the other driver of the economy, is a notoriously cyclical business which is itself dependent on the strength of other sectors of the economy for growth.

For those reasons, it is essential both to keep international business growing and to revive tourism and to exploit other opportunities that arise. International business, while outwardly strong, is also fickle, as today's stories on the possibility that many businesses are considering moving to Ireland and elsewhere over work permits shows.

And the industry could also be dramatically changed if lawmakers in the United States and in the European Union decide to accept the propaganda that Bermuda is a tax evaders' paradise.

The UBP is correct to say that Bermuda has lost its influence in Washington and elsewhere. And Mr. Cox is quite wrong to say that "you can't fight the New York Times", as if that newspaper was the unimpeachable cause of Bermuda's worsening image.

Then too, the economy's strength is uneven. If international companies are doing well, many local companies are finding the going harder, and are not helped by growing red tape and bureaucracy.

One example of that is the PLP's plan to introduce unemployment insurance in a country that has to import a third or more of its workforce.

Equally, term limits for work permits, while well intentioned in concept, are causing deep uncertainty for local and international business - and business hates uncertainty.

While Mr. Cox has indeed balanced the Budget each year, the annual current account surplus has shrunk from more than $84 million in the 1998/1999 financial year to $38 million in the current 2003/2004 year. While no government should run unnecessarily large surpluses (taking money out of the hands of taxpayers), they should be sufficiently large to avoid borrowing for capital projects and to pay down existing debt.

Bermuda has not increased its debt for since 1997, but it has not reduced it in these years either. And this year the Government intends to borrow $80 million, increasing the debt burden by 50 percent from $160 million to $240 million.

This is not a call for an increase in taxes. But the Government has increased its spending at a faster rate (32 percent since 1998) than its revenue (20 percent since 1998) and should have exercised more frugality here, as it promised before it was elected.