BANGKOK (Reuters) — Whoever was behind Bangkok’s New Year’s Eve bombings sent a clear message to Thailand’s army-appointed government: terrorism can also be a political tool and 2007 will not be an easy year.The six bombs that exploded hours before midnight and two that went off as 2007 arrived, killing three and wounding 38, also served to remind the generals that exercising power is far more difficult than seizing it.

“They are beginning to wake up to quite how difficult the task they have set themselves is, if you fling out a political leader who has support of 55 percent of the country,” said political analyst and Thaksin biographer Chris Baker.

Since pulling off his bloodless September 19 coup against twice-elected Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, little has gone right for army chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin, and his former commanding officer, Surayud Chulanont, who was appointed interim premier after Thailand’s 18th military putsch in 74 years.

The Council for National Security (CNS), as the coup leaders now call themselves, has struggled to dredge up concrete evidence against Thaksin of corruption — the primary motive in removing the billionaire from office.

In the Malay-speaking far south, Surayud’s overtures to Muslim militants behind a three-year separatist insurgency were met by immediate spikes in violence.

Then, just as events were winding down for the end-of-year holiday season, the central bank and army-appointed finance minister sent markets into a tail-spin with draconian currency controls designed to stop the baht rising against the dollar.

Analysts expect the stock market, the worst performer in Asia in 2006, to fall as much four percent in reaction to the bombings when it reopens after the New Year break today.

With the media rediscovering its bite after three months of acquiescence, the Nation newspaper had fortune-tellers predicting political chaos, including major anti-CNS street protests and postponement of the elections promised under a new constitution by October.

A day after the bombs, Surayud acknowledged they were an attempt to “create political insecurity among the public” but his vague explanations as to who was behind them begged more questions than answers.

As well as blaming elements within Thaksin’s ousted administration, he also pointed the finger at “all those which have lost power in the past”.

His failure to elaborate provided more grist to a rumour mill already working overtime thanks to the confusion of messages coming out of the army, police and government.

Among the theories in newspapers were southern militants taking their campaign to the capital, which they have not done so far and which would mark a dramatic escalation of their struggle.

Others had police seeking to head off an army-imposed reform drive, a renegade former prime minister acting in a fit of pique and or hardline elements in the army looking for excuses to continue military rule.

Historically, the army’s approach to domestic security has relied primarily on suppression, and with martial law still officially in place, there is no reason to see why it should be any different now, analysts said.

In that case, some sort of re-run of the bloody “Black May” clashes in 1992 between troops and pro-democracy demonstrators that followed Thailand’s last military coup a year earlier is a realistic possibility, they said.

“Their instincts are all about suppression, and I think that is the way they will go. But they risk putting themselves in silly situations, dangerous situations, and it will erode whatever minute legitimacy they have,” Baker said.