It has been three weeks since Turkey elected an Islamic political party to be its new Government.

You'd have thought, in the light of the current walking-on-eggshells state of affairs where democracies and Islamic states are concerned, that more might have been made of it.

Very little has.there was some news coverage of the election results, a little more when the new Prime Minister, Abdullah Gul, anxious to quiet fears, said that no matter what his party's religious orientation, the ship he was going to be steering would remain secular. But the usual smoke and thunder of pundits' guns from the flanks has been almost completely missing from this event.

It might have been the fact that the Turkish election was held the day before American elections were held. Or perhaps it was the fact that Turkey is just one of those countries that seems impenetrable to Western eyes.

Whatever it was, we may well be missing out on the birth of something important to the balance of power in the Middle East. Turkey is a very odd country. Quite apart from anything else, it is that most unusual of political blooms, a Muslim country with a secular government.

Some weeks ago, President Bush announced a strategy of exporting democracy to the Middle East to counter the frustrating stranglehold radical Islamic governments have on the opinions and behaviour of their people. It may be that Turkey now represents a hybrid with a better chance than pure democracy of being used as a model elsewhere in the Middle East. The basic principles of Turkey's secularism can be traced back to the Ottoman period, when the religious establishment gave up much of its power to the civil authorities and, surprisingly, understood that this experiment worked to the benefit of the country.

This last election in Turkey was unusual, in that the party that won a majority described itself as following Islamic principles. Its victory could have meant a kind of Islamic beachhead in normally neutral territory, fuelling fears that Turkey might drift away from its long-standing secularism. As a result, the pledge by its new leader to hew to a secular path has been a great relief to Middle East watchers. It also means that in a way not possible before, the new government might become a legitimate blueprint for Middle-Eastern countries looking for ways to settle the conflicts between tradition-bound religious leaders and the desire of their populations for modern freedoms. Iran is the example that comes most immediately to mind, but it is by no means the only one.

Turkey is a kind of half-way house between the Middle East and the West, neither wholly one nor the other. It sits between the Middle East and Europe, separating the Black Sea from the Mediterranean. It is the only Muslim country in NATO. During the Gulf War, Turkey was a strong supporter of the US/British alliance, and British aircraft still use a Turkish base for their patrols of the no-fly zones in Iraq. The US military used the Turkish Air Force's base when they were waging war in Afghanistan. Turkey shares borders with Syria, Iraq and Iran, and has what you might describe as cautiously cordial relations with Israel. If the US does invade Iraq, Turkey's support will be critical. To judge by Mr.Gul's statements, that support is likely to be forthcoming. Turkey's former Prime Minister, Bulent Ecevit, despite his support for the West, wanted to have the best relations he could with Iraq. He said, while he remained in office, that he was an opponent of a US-led invasion, although he did also say that he might change his mind if the action were UN- approved. His sentiments had quite wide support in Turkey.

This seeming ambivalence in Turkish attitudes towards Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq is deeply influenced by the stubbornness of the majority about the desire of the country's large minority of some 12 million Kurds, one fifth of the population, for a separate Kurdish state. Iraq's smaller Kurdish population - some 3.6 million people - has set up a surprisingly successful autonomous community in northern Iraq, despite Saddam Hussein's ugly and sometimes violent attitude towards Kurds.

The Iraqi Kurds believe that the end of Saddam Hussein's regime would enable them to achieve full independence, and they count on the US to help them. This notion horrifies the Turks, who consider that the creation of a separate Kurdish State in Iraq would lead to a similar split in Turkey, and then to a sizeable, united Kurdish nation. The whole vexed question of Kurdish rights, together with an informal demand for a solution to the partition of Cyprus, forms part of a package of reforms being demanded as pre-requisites for joining the EU. Although controversial, this package was passed by the Turkish parliament in August, so that the Turkish application for membership could be put forward for consideration at the EU meeting due to be held next month.

In Turkey, the possibility of EU membership is considered a much bigger issue than the possibility of war with Iraq. The country has invested heavily in gaining membership, goaded by the shrinkage of its economy by nine percent last year. Mr. Gul has said he thinks there will not be time for a solution of the Cyprus problem before December but, perhaps to soften the impact of that announcement, predicted in almost the same breath that the negotiations will be far easier when they do begin than might have been the case if Turkey's election had had a different outcome. Mr. Gul was careful to send that message because there has been some talk about the possibility that the EU might reject Turkey's bid to become a new member. Former French president Val?ry Giscard d'Estaing, who chairs a convention to establish a unified constitution for the EU, has been quoted as having said that Turkish membership would destroy the Union. A more realistic view is that the EU will feel it cannot afford not to go out of its way to send an encouraging message to Islam by admitting Turkey to its membership.

There is a possibility that Mr. Gul will not be in his post for long. The real leader of the new government is the leader of the election-winning party, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Mr. Erdogan is currently touring European capitals, on a kind of charm offensive. His tour started, significantly, in Athens, capital of Turkey's historic rival, Greece, where the red carpet was laid out for his visit in a big way. Mr. Erdogan is barred from taking elected office because of a conviction for sedition. But the seditious act for which he spent time in prison was that of publishing 'Militant Poetry' of the Minarets are our bayonets, Mosques our barracks variety. (Jail terms for Bad Poetry might be a step in the right direction in any country, but I'm not sure how you can contrive to arrive at Militant Poetry without passing through a door marked Insanely Silly Self-Parody, and that has to be a cast-iron defence against conviction. My guess is we're looking at something in the drinking water.) It does seem likely that this unfortunate conviction might soon vanish and, when it does, Mr.Gul, who is rather unkindly referred to in the Turkish press as "the Caretaker", is likely to step aside in favour of Mr.Erdogan.

There are two further factors that are bound to have an impact on future events in Turkey. First, the Turkish Army. It has played a crucial role in Turkish politics in the past, and still considers itself the custodian of the secular republic. It has staged three coups since 1960, and was instrumental in removing a welfare-led government in 1997. It wields power mainly through the National Security Council, which in practice exerts influence on a wide range of issues throughout the country.

Second, the economy, which is in more than a bit of a mess.

Turkey's external debt now stands at $120 billion, roughly 80 percent of her $146.5 billion GNP. In 2001, Turkey's obligation entailed debt service of $24.6 billion, equivalent to 16.8 percent of GNP, roughly twice as much as was spent on health and education combined.

This is what economists would surely characterise as an unsustainable situation. It seems likely that Turkey will try to have her debt burden re-assessed to clear the way out of the boom-bust cycle that some blame on International Monetary Fund policies, and allow the country to make a fresh start. For all that, Mr.Gul and Mr.Erdogan seem to have a good hand. If they play their cards well during the coming months, the hybridity of Turkey's government, its importance to an alliance against Iraq and the general desirability of its political success may well result in all kinds of economic and political forgiveness. That Militant Poetry stuff is going to take a while, though.