The news that hotel bookings are strong through the start of tourism's high season will be welcome news both for Tourism Minister Renee Webb and for the industry in general.

Results from the first quarter of the year were mixed. Visitor arrivals for the period were marginally down, but "bed nights" and length of stay were higher than in the same period last year. That's good news, because longer holidays means that visitors are spending more money while they are here.

However, it should be noted that through the first quarter, people staying in commercial properties on vacations accounted for just 53 percent of all visitors and their numbers fell 13.8 percent compared to 2003.

Another 29 percent of visitors came for business or conventions while 15 percent were visiting friends and relatives. And those 15 percent visiting friends accounted for about 40 percent of the total bednights.

Still, given that the stock of hotel rooms was down through the end of March, the figures are encouraging, as are the general good feelings of visitors about their vacations.

All of that suggests that Bermuda could have its best year since the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. But it must be noted that even then, the figures will still be well down on the mid-1990s, let alone compared to the industry's heyday in the 1970s and 1980s.

Much of that has to do with the stock of hotel beds on the Island, which are roughly a quarter of what they were at the industry's peak. Assuming that hotel renovations and new construction take place and the number of rooms is expanded through this year and in 2005, and that arrivals continue to recover, the tourism industry looks set for a small improvement on the dismal performance of the last decade.