This weekend's foul weather was a useful reminder that the hurricane season is far from over ? and that this is the time of year when Bermuda is most at risk.

Subtropical Storm Nicole blew up close to the Island and hit the Island with far more powerful winds and rain than forecasters could have reasonable predicted.

In that way, it was very similar to Hurricane Emily in 1987 which struck the Island with very little notice.

So the fact that Bermuda has avoided the hurricanes that have devastated parts of the Caribbean and Florida so far this year does not mean that the Island can afford to let its guard down.

Quite the contrary: Bermuda needs to stay on high alert not just now but for the next decade, given that forecasters are predicting a decade of more severe weather for the region.

Whether it is being caused by global warming or is a cyclical change in weather patterns is up for debate. What is indisputable is that Bermuda and the rest of the region need to recognise that the next ten years are likely to get worse, not better.

And there are no guarantees that the Bermuda High, which forced hurricanes into the Caribbean and Florida and kept them away from Bermuda in August and September, will be as strong now or next year.

If anyone needs more of a sense of just how bad things can get, they should make the reporting this week of reporter Ayo Johnson and deputy chief photographer Tamell Simons required reading.

Their reports and photographs from the Cayman Islands this week show just what can happen when a massive category five hurricane lands over an island for 36 hours.

Simply put, it makes Hurricane Fabian look like a January gale in Bermuda.

Of course, the Cayman Islands are much lower lying than Bermuda and don't have the same kind of reef protection as Bermuda.

But will that really make much difference when a hurricane comes directly over the Island packing 150 mph winds and stays for a day and a half?

The Cayman Islands estimate that it will cost $2 billion to repair the damage from Ivan. Fabian cost a fraction of that.

On a related note, the Ministry of Tourism should rethink the timing of the Bermuda Music Festival, which has endured more than its fair share of poor weather in the past.

This year was an extreme example, but the weather in Bermuda in October can be so variable that one wonders if it is really worth it.

Tourism Minister Ewart Brown claimed last week that more than 2,500 visitors came to the Island to enjoy the Festival. Journalists who attended the concerts were not convinced by those numbers, at least when they could see through the deluge.

But one wonders just how many of those visitors are likely to return after spending, as one letter writer said, more time trying to keep dry than watching the few performers who actually managed to get on stage.

This is not a criticism of the organisers of the festival, who have worked hard to put on a first class event. But in the absence of a wet weather alternative to Dockyard or the National Stadium, it is time to move the date of the festival to a time when the weather is more predictable.