It is a very interesting exercise to examine trends in population growth for the period 1960 to 2000 as measured at each Census Date.

The data show some revealing trends, some of which are widely known and others that are relatively unknown. Three trends stand out: The decline in the growth of both the pre-school and the school age population; the marked growth in the non-Bermudian population and the explosion in the numbers of senior citizens. I will discuss these observations and the obvious implications.

In carrying out this study, I chose the 1960 Census as the benchmark because that year opens a decade of tremendous change. I know that it is common in recent years to talk about new beginnings ? New Bermuda; New UBP; Reinvented PLP and so on. However, the decade that was introduced by the Census year 1960, makes the current claims to "newness" pale into insignificance.

Towards the end of the 1950s, changes began that resulted in the almost total dismantling of Bermuda's widespread racism. Job opportunities were widely restricted, with blacks not able to work even as clerks in most Government positions that were paid for by their taxes. There were even limited professional opportunities for blacks. They could look forward to becoming lawyers, doctors, teachers and preachers but while there were no restrictions placed on the acquisition of other professional skills, the opportunity to pursue these were severely limited.

Politically, the franchise was limited to persons owning land which effectively restricted the vote of the vast numbers of blacks who occupied Pembroke East and Devonshire North.

By 1958, there were clear signs that these practices were coming to an end. At that time, Bermuda was shaken by the Theatre Boycotts which effectively ended racial discrimination not only in the theatres but also in restaurants and hotels. In the same year, "Pork Chops" Mills led a group of Dockworkers down Front Street in protest at the refusal of the owners of the stevedoring firms to recognise the Bermuda Industrial Union.

The boycott and union activity set off an avalanche of protest that ended with very marked changes in the political and economic environment in the 1960s. Most important of these occurred as a result of the constitutional amendments of 1967. Some of the important results of these amendments were: extension of the franchise to all Bermudians aged 21 or older; the right to form political parties; Bermudians gaining control of the Civil Service; and the full legalisation of Trade Unions.

These changes were associated with an expansion in economic activity that brought other changes in its wake. Chief among these were the marked growth in the Financial Services sector that led to an equally large growth in the employment of non-Bermudians and women.

What then were the significant demographic changes and their implications? The period 1960 to 2000 saw a moderate growth in the total population from 42,640 to 62,059, an increase of 46 percent. This relatively slow growth rate was due to the declining fertility of Bermudian women. There can be no doubt that the widespread education by the Department of Health with respect to birth control and the expansion of job opportunities for women effectively reduced fertility.

In fact the population growth rate, though moderate, would have been much lower had there not been a massive increase in the numbers of non-Bermudians. Available data for the period show that the number of non-Bermudians increased by two and a half times from 5,167 in 1960 to 13,256 in the year 2000. Clearly, non-Bermudians were driving the expansion in the total resident population.

Falling fertility had its immediate impact on the numbers of pre-school children. From Census year 1960 to Census year 2000, the population under the age of five decreased from 5,284 to 3,989, a decline of 25 percent. This fall in the number of births reflected a willingness of Bermudian women to adopt the new birth control techniques and also to take advantage of the widening career opportunities becoming available as the financial services sector expanded.

The steadily declining numbers of pre-school children is also apparent in the declining numbers of school-age children aged five to 14. This is verified by the fact that this group declined by 12 percent over the 40 year period from 8,948 in 1960 to 7,858 in 2000. There can be no doubt that the declining numbers of school-age children has enabled the education providers, both private and government, to raise the standards of local education. Although there are many who will question this conclusion, the fact remains that in the year 2000, Bermudians with degrees numbered 5,572. This number was more than double the number recorded ten years earlier.

It is wise to note at this point the obvious implication that the decline in births is having a marked impact on the numbers entering the work force. The resident population aged 15 to 24, inclusive of non-Bermudians, has risen by a mere four percent over the forty year period. This is virtually no increase at all. In fact, were it not for the existence of the non-Bermudian entrants to the workforce, there would have been a decline in the numbers in this group.

This result brings good news and bad news. The good news is that any young Bermudian who wants a job should be able to get one. The bad news is that the availability of young Bermudians to staff an increasingly demanding labour force will decrease in the next two decades and our dependence on non-Bermudians will increase accordingly.

Perhaps the most startling news provided by a review of past Census data is the marked growth of the aged population. Residents at the age of 65 or older have almost trebled since 1960. In the benchmark year, mature citizens numbered only 2,420 or six percent of the population. In the year 2000, they had increased to 6,722 or 11 percent of the population. Nor does this trend show any signs of abating in the next two decades. This follows from the fact that the so-called baby boomers are now beginning to enter this age segment.

The increase in numbers of seniors has serious policy implications for the Bermuda Government. This group makes great demands on the health care systems and on housing. Further, much of the tax base required to provide for these citizens will be eroded by the decline of new entrants to the work-force. A partial solution to this problem would be to permit employees to continue working with full benefits as long as they are willing and their health permits.

We may conclude that even this cursory examination of Bermuda's demographic trends indicates that there are some vital policy decisions that must be developed. The pre-school population is clearly declining and this trend is making itself felt on the numbers of the school age population. This should mean that the challenge of providing quality education should no longer cause a financial burden for educators in the public sector.

However our increasing dependence on imported labour clearly indicates that there is a growing need to modernise existing legislation regarding work permits. We need to consider granting even longer periods for work permits in order to avoid the costly challenges of overseas recruitment and local cultural acclimatisation.

Bermuda's seniors are growing in leaps and bounds and the implications for the provision of quality heath care should be obvious. It should be equally apparent that there is a rapidly growing need for housing that is suitable for the ageing population segment. An immediate answer that would also help to offset our growing dependence on imported labour, would be look for ways to lengthen the work life of seniors thereby reducing the public obligation and financial strain on their offspring.