If anyone had predicted before November 9, 1998 that the proportion of jobs held by non-Bermudians would have increased by the third year of a Progressive Labour Party government term, they would probably have been put in St. Brendan's.

Yet, in one of the stranger statistics unearthed by Opposition Leader Grant Gibbons in his Budget Reply, that is exactly what has happened.

According to preliminary results from the Employment Survey, the number of filled jobs in the Bermuda economy declined from 2000 to 2001 by 429 to 37,588.

But the number of jobs held by Bermudians and spouses of Bermudians fell by 877 positions, while the number of positions held by non-Bermudians rose by 458.

"Interestingly, since the PLP formed the government in 1998, the percentage of jobs in the workplace held by non-Bermudians has risen from 19.1 percent to 25.7 percent," Dr. Gibbons said, adding: "... Let me repeat it another way. Since the PLP came to power in 1998, the proportion of jobs in the workforce held by non-Bermudians has gone up, to more than one quarter from less than one fifth of the workforce."

Given that the PLP has traditionally the champion of Bermudianisation, this is extraordinary.

And given that the Bermuda economy went into recession in 2001, one would expect the number and proportion of non-Bermudians holding jobs to decline, which is what happened under the United Bermuda Party in the recession in the early 1990s.

Instead, the opposite has happened. What's going on?

To some extent, the answer lies in demographics and population changes.

Bermuda's population is ageing. The Census has yet to be released, but it must be assumed that the number of Bermudians retiring is higher than the number of Bermudians entering the workforce for the first time.

According to the 1991 Census, there were 7,354 people in the community aged between five and 14. They would now be between 15 and 24, and thus are broadly entry level workers.

In 1981, that age group was 8,514, meaning that in the early 1990s, roughly 1,200 more young people were entering the work force than they are today.

At the other end of the scale, in 1991 there were 11,957 people living in Bermuda between the ages of 45 and 64. They would now be between 55 and 74 now and either retired or thinking about it.

In 1980, there were 10,432 people in this age group, 1,500 fewer.

These numbers do not differentiate between Bermudians and non-Bermudians. Nor is it possible, from the figures available, to calculate how many young (or old) Bermudians have emigrated.

But in very broad terms, if employment levels remained unchanged from one year to the next, that would necessitate a rise in the proportion of non-Bermudians holding jobs.

In fact the number of jobs has risen as well. In 1991, there were 34,621 jobs in the community. Last year there were 37,588 jobs.

Thus, it is not surprising that the proportion of Bermudians is declining and the number of non-Bermudians is rising. It has to be presumed — and again, the Census would be helpful here — that more Bermudians are retiring than there are Bermudians entering the workforce at the other end.

What is not as clear is why the number and proportion of non-Bermudians in the work force still rose in 2001, even as the total number of jobs declined from 2000.

What the 2001 numbers suggest is that the community is doing a poor job of moving Bermudians who lose jobs in one sector into another which may be experiencing growth and/or the gulf between new entrants into the workforce and retirees is wider than anyone thought.

Two solutions come to mind and neither is unemployment insurance, since it is clear there are plenty of jobs for qualified Bermudians. The first is training. If jobs are being shed in hospitality, then retraining for people so they can work in growing parts of the economy is clearly needed.

The second is to raise the age of retirement for those who wish to continue to work. There are hundreds of able-bodied and energetic people over the age of 65 who want something to do, and given the stinginess of many pensions and the soaring cost of health insurance, could probably do with the money. Why not employ them?