Gordon Brown looks closer than ever to taking over as British Prime Minister from Tony Blair just as analysts say the gloss is coming off the Chancellor’s economic record.

Blair has already said he will not fight another election and bookmakers last week shortened the odds on him leaving office by the end of 2006 after he suffered his first parliamentary defeat since winning power in 1997.

Brown is the favourite to succeed him. But after eight years of solid growth and low inflation on his watch, the economy looks set to record its weakest expansion this year since a slump in the early 1990s.

If the prime minister weathers the latest political storm to hang on and the economy falters further, Brown runs the risk of letting potential rivals emerge from the party ranks.

“The economy doesn’t look as good it once did,” said Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Monument Securities. “If I were Gordon Brown, I’d be concerned there’ll be a slip-up and would want to get there (to the premiership) sooner rather than later.”

The timing of Blair’s departure remains unclear. He has said he plans to serve another full term and can call an election as late as 2010, although some commentators believe a handover is most likely in two to three years.

A growing number of analysts say Blair’s authority is now waning. Nearly 50 Labour lawmakers rebelled last week against plans to hold terrorist suspects for up to 90 days without charge.

His judgment was also called into question this month after close ally David Blunkett was forced to resign from government for a second time in a year — this time for failing to follow the rules on ex-ministers’ business dealings.

“The 2006 spring local elections will be important. If the Labour Party loses heavily in those, they’ll be thinking they have to do something about Blair,” said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

Labour fought the May election this year on a platform of ongoing prosperity but there are growing signs the feel-good factor has diminished as consumers are no longer powering the economy with the same vigour.

Joblessness has started to rise from historic lows. House prices are no longer booming and retail spending has slowed sharply as Britons feel the pinch of soaring energy prices and a trillion-pound debt overhang.

Economists are now predicting growth of about 1.7 percent this year, roughly half the rate promised by Brown before Labour’s election victory this year.

Experts say the public finances are sinking deeper into the red and will force the government to raise an extra $10 billion a year in taxes.

Happily for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, he does not appear to have serious rivals in his party for the top job now.

“Every potential Blairite successor has been a victim of events,” said Lewis, referring to the departure of Blunkett and other Blair allies such as Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers.

Professor Curtice said other ministers did not carry the same weight as Brown. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, for example, had been damaged by the Iraq war.

And while the opposition Conservative Party is finally showing some signs of life and may be seen as more dangerous if 39-year-old David Cameron wins a leadership race in December, Brown’s position is entrenched for now, analysts said.

“One has to appreciate that Brown is extremely well-embedded in his party. There is a faction in the Labour Party that can be identified as Brownite, it’s going to be very, very difficult for someone to dislodge that,” said Curtice. — Reuters