The surprise announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien on Wednesday that he would step down in February, 2004 was, in part, a deliberate attempt to spike the guns of his arch-rival, observers said.

Chretien’s decision marked a personal defeat at the end of an 11-week power battle inside the ruling Liberal Party, which started when the prime minister sacked former Finance Minister Paul Martin, the current favourite to win a leadership race.

But by holding off a vote on who will be the new leader for another 18 months, Chretien is giving Martin’s rivals the chance to properly prepare their own bids for power.

“He delivered a poke in the eye to Paul Martin one last time. He’s managed in some senses to gain another 18 months when he could otherwise have been gone in six months,” said Professor Allen Mills of the University of Winnipeg.

“I think it’s the old idea of stringing it out so Martin becomes older in appearance and less politically saleable and gives the competition more time,” Mills told Reuters. “I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. I’m totally convinced that Chretien simply hates Martin.”

Martin turns 64 this month and must somehow maintain the momentum of his leadership campaign as a backbench legislator while his main rivals are in high-profile Cabinet positions, among them Finance Minister John Manley, Industry Minister Allan Rock and Heritage Minister Sheila Copps.

“This becomes problematic for Mr. Martin. He seems to be way ahead of the field at the moment, but can he sustain that over the next 18 months?” said Professor Norman Ruff of the University of Victoria.

“February, 2004 is a long way away and the worst possible scenario for the Martin camp is that their man becomes ignored and marginalised, and rather than being seen as the front-runner somehow he is seen as yesterday’s man,” he told Reuters.

Long-time Chretien mentor and former Finance Minister Mitchell Sharp said Martin was in trouble. “He has to fill in all that time. The others just come on to be sort of fresh but very well prepared ... the big question is how does (Martin) fit into this pattern? He knows he has a problem,” Sharp told CBC television.

Another leading question is how well the two camps can settle their differences after months of internal conflict. Liberal officials and cabinet ministers insisted Chretien’s announcement would allow the party to heal its wounds and focus on governing the country, dismissing suggestions that the leadership race would prove disruptive.

“This government can walk and chew gum at the same time,” said key Chretien aide Eddie Goldenberg.

But University of Toronto political science professor Larry Le Duc said Chretien would be less able to control Cabinet given that everyone knows when he is leaving.

“He is a lame duck now, one of the things he was trying to avoid, so it is probably going to undermine him somewhat in Ottawa,” he told Reuters.

“It also means the leadership race will be on right from the start and it’ll be hard to get things done. So if he was trying to focus on a new policy agenda beginning in the fall that’s going to be made that much harder.” — Reuters