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Don't let your guard down

Bermuda dodged a bullet yesterday when Hurricane Florence ended up moving further away from the Island than expected a couple of days ago.

Nonetheless, Florence is valuable reminder of nature’s force; this was a large and powerful storm that had the potential to do serious damage to the Island. And with the hurricane season far from over, this is no time for anyone to let down their guard.

Having said that, Bermuda’s hurricane preparations stood the Island in good stead with the Emergency Measures Organisation efficiently coordinating services.

There will be some people who will question whether it was necessary to close the Causeway as early 7 p.m. on Sunday, but it is better to err on the side of caution than to take a chance, especially after the deaths that the occurred in Hurricane Fabian in 2003.

Aside from that, the preparations for the storm went extremely well, although it looks as if the Island may experience relatively high winds through today.

And it is worth noting that another tropical storm has formed to the south of the Island that must be watched carefully.

But Florence also showed the threat a storm of its size could pose to the Island if it was a direct hit and lasted as long as Florence seems likely to.

That’s because Bermuda has been, and the term is used guardedly, lucky in that the two hurricanes that have scored direct hits on the Island in recent memory — Emily in 1987 and Fabian in 2003 — were relatively compact storms and were moving fairly quickly.

Florence, by contrast, was large and was moving fairly slowly.

Hurricane planners need to consider carefully what might happen if a large, slow-moving storm pounded the Island for 24 hours or longer. Then a Category One storm could cause massive damage if it relentlessly hammered the Island, and it hardly bears thinking about what a bigger storm could do.

But we need to think about it. We would almost certainly would see injuries, large numbers of people made homeless, lengthy power outages and parts of the Island cut off for long periods of time.

Making sure the Island has sufficient emergency supplies and plans in place for such an eventuality is essential and not overly-pessimistic. In any hurricane you need to prepare for the worst, and the worst could be pretty bad: just look at New Orleans after Katrina.

Bermuda has not experienced a storm of that magnitude, perhaps ever, but the reality is that the Island is likely to face more hurricanes, not fewer in the years to come.

There’s a debate among hurricane scientists over whether the increase in both the intensity and the frequency of hurricanes in recent years is simply cyclical or if global warming is a primary cause. What’s not being debated is that things are likely to get worse.

Bermuda may be a small target, but it is in a prime position, and that means the Island must maintain its readiness. That means maintaining our strict building codes, perhaps being more restrictive abut shorefront construction, and yes, trenching more of our main power lines.

As ever, the emergency services, the utility companies and all of the people who go to work when most of his are secure in our own homes deserve enormous credit for their work in Florence. They will be needed more in the future.