Editorial: Overheating economy
There was more evidence this week, as if more was needed, that the Bermuda economy is badly overheated.
Statistician Cordell Riley of Profiles of Bermuda released his research that contained a number of matters of concern.
One is that job creation is increasing at a faster-than-expected rate, and that will inevitably mean that Bermuda will have to import more foreign workers.
Going hand-in-hand with that is his prediction that the construction sector will soon be Bermuda's largest single employer, overtaking international business.
Given the number of cranes around Hamilton, that is no surprise, but it is risky for a number of reasons.
One is that construction is a notoriously cyclical business, and althought the building boom in Bermuda has exceeded expectations, that is no reason to think that it will never stop. If anything, it raises the spectre of when it ends, it will be with a resounding crash.
Other recent evidence includes the Island's annual rate of inflation, which has now exceeded four percent for the second consecutive month, and the policy of the banks, having depleted their stock of Bermuda dollar deposits, to lend foreign currncy holdings into the domestic market.
Although the Bermuda Monetary Authority continues to maintain that the rate of lending is safe and given that the interchangeability of the US and Bermuda dollar makes the distinction a little muddier than it need be, it still means that Bermuda is borrowing more money than it has available for repayment, and that can't be good.
What it also means, along with the Island's fast pace of growth, is that there is more money chasing goods and services. That makes everything from socks to houses more expensive, and unchecked, makes Bermuda uncompetitive.
More generally, increasing the population adds strain to an infrastructure that is already creaking under the strain. Growing demand for all kinds of goods reduces the quality of life in Bermuda when it is already under strain.
This week, Premier Dr. Ewart Brown again defended his hotel construction plans while promising they would be done in a sustainable way; but these recent statistics suggest again that great care needs to be taken with this.
