Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has retained power after a hotly contested election which critics say he rigged, but analysts say his controversial victory is likely to condemn Zimbabwe to political instability, economic hopelessness and diplomatic isolation.

Zimbabwe’s political crisis is also bound to affect southern Africa whose leaders have largely stood by Mugabe in the last two years, they said.

“Mugabe might claim he is the winner, but Zimbabwe is the loser with his victory,” political analyst Masipula Sithole said.

“Zimbabwe is the loser because these elections will be disputed nationally and internationally...and this will have a big impact on the political atmosphere and on the economy,” he told Reuters.

Mugabe’s main rival Morgan Tsvangirai appealed for calm earlier this week from supporters of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) but the government has maintained that the MDC has plans to call street demonstrations and strikes to protest against the election results.

Sithole said international pressure against Mugabe would increase in the coming months, and would get worse if he cracked down on the opposition as he has threatened.

Last week Mugabe said he would pursue Tsvangirai on treason charges once the elections “are out of the way”.

MDC Secretary-General Welshman Ncube was taken to court on Tuesday on charges that he, Tsvangirai and another MDC official plotted to assassinate Mugabe. They deny the charge.

“Mugabe has already run foul of national and world opinion over the elections, and he is going to face more sanctions and more isolation if he continues on the repressive path he has been pursuing in the last two months,” Sithole said.

But Emmanuel Magade, another political analyst, said while Zimbabwe’s economy was sure to deteriorate further, with severe foreign exchange shortages and looming mass starvation, Mugabe was likely to be more reconciliatory both at home and abroad.

“Mugabe knows that if he continues on the same path the economy is going to the ground ... and he knows he has to soften his stance and change some things,” said Magade, a law lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe.

“I think he will just be tough enough in the aftermath of the elections to stabilise the political situation ... and he will put away the (ruling ZANU-PF) militias and will probably start looking for an honourable exit,” he added.

Magade said Mugabe had no option but to seek peace with the world because Zimbabwe’s economy, in its fourth year of recession, could not afford to fall any further.

The United States and the European Union have already slapped travel sanctions on Mugabe and his inner circle and have threatened further penalties if the election process is abused.

Tsvangirai and Western critics say Mugabe systematically cheated to cling to power in a country whose woes have dented investor confidence in the region and helped knock the value of neighbouring South Africa’s rand lower. —Reuters