On November 4, America will elect its 44th President. This is likely to be an event which will change the history of America like no other in modern times.

This is because the new President will either be the first African American to hold that post or the oldest American. While the racial and age characteristics of the new president is of immense interest to everyone, of even more importance is how the new leader will perform in the face of a threatened serious economic downturn.

Who will be the likely winner of this great contest? Will it be Barak Obama, the charismatic African American? Or will it be John McCain, the very popular war hero?

The two candidates have very little in common except that they are both Senators and therefore are members of the highest legislative body in America. However, apart from that commonality, they could not be more different.

Consider some key aspects of their lives. Sen. Obama is the child of a white woman from Kansas and a black Kenyan (there are white Kenyans). The father abandoned the family while Obama was still very young thereby leaving him to be raised by a loving mother and very caring grandparents.

Sen. McCain was born to a family distinguished for its record of military service to their country – his father and grandfather were both admirals.

Senators Obama and McCain both attended top universities, however Sen. Obama distinguished himself by becoming the first African American to be elected president of the Harvard Law School Review. Sen. McCain scraped through university distinguishing himself as a playboy and rabble rouser.

Following university, Sen. Obama forsook a career in law to become a community organiser, a state senator and eventually a US Senator. Sen. McCain returned home from the Vietnam War as a national hero, divorced his crippled wife, married an attractive young heiress and was elected to the US Senate where he gained a reputation as a maverick.

What will each bring to the table for America, the world, and Bermuda? For America, the immediate concern is reviving a sagging economy. This is no easy achievement given the tendency for both businesses and consumers to tighten their belts when faced with a downturn in the national economy. This means that the new president will have to revive an economy which some analysts claim is in worse shape than at any time since the Great Depression of 1929.

We watched as President Bush, supported by both candidates for his job, tried to shore up a sagging financial system by a cash injection of $700 billion. The administration hopes that this infusion of cash will bolster the credit system and enable banks and insurance companies to assist businesses starved for cash simply to meet payrolls and operating expenses.

Both candidates intend to stimulate aggregate demand by introducing substantial tax cuts. For Obama, the tax cuts will be for those earning $250,000 or less. For McCain, the tax cuts will be for everyone. I believe that the McCain strategy makes more sense. If the goal is to revive the economy, then increased spending will stimulate businesses to produce more to meet the increase in demand.

The financing of this increase in production will come from the credit made possible by the government infusion of cash as well as the additional funds in the hands of consumers as a result of the tax cuts. The reason I believe that the McCain strategy will be the more effective is because the tax cut applies to all Americans hence the revival in spending will be carried out by all consumers and businesses.

How the managers of the major world economies will react to this American initiative is by no means clear. Certainly, the President of the United States recognises the importance of buy-in from the leaders of the major world economies since he has already called for a summit of their financial managers. This strategy is very important and is evidence that world leaders have taken seriously the lessons learned from the Great Depression of 1929.

One of the most devastating acts during the Great Depression was the enactment of policies by governments of the world's major economies which were called "beggar thy neighbour". For example one country would increase barriers to imports in order to encourage its citizens to substitute locally produced goods for imported goods. Of course in the face of this threat the countries whose exports were being threatened enacted similar policies with the result that world trade dried up and the depression deepened.

Clearly, the major world economies are taking steps to avoid a repeat of this behaviour. What does all this mean for Bermuda? It certainly means that we will have to face serious threats to our earning capability as a nation. The international finance companies may be persuaded to locate their businesses elsewhere for no other reason than to avoid the sometimes outrageous rents they are currently being charged.

The fall in rents as a result of this exodus will no doubt be of major concern to all Bermudians who currently rent their premises. Bermudians who have just completed housing units with the objective of cashing in on the buoyant rental market will probably find it very difficult to avoid bankruptcy.

Those who built their current rental units at the early stages of the current boom should survive easily. But what about the members of Bermuda's labour force? Should the international companies exit the Island in significant numbers, there will be substantial layoffs which will no doubt include many Bermudians who are enjoying buoyant incomes in this high pay sector.

Workers in the construction industry should also be impacted since a slowdown already underway will no doubt worsen as planned new projects, both residential and non-residential will no doubt be postponed.

There can be no doubt that the US and world tourist industry will be affected by the meltdown on Wall Street. However, Bermuda may be able to escape completely the consequences of the meltdown as Americans shift from visiting far off places in exchange for sites closer to home such as continental United States and its neighbouring countries.

While this is indeed a widely hoped for possibility, it is by no means a certainty. In the face of these national uncertainties, there is one fact of which we can be certain. That is that the downturn in the American economy will not improve the employment opportunities for Bermudians.

Since economic downturns mean that businesses and government must become more efficient in their operations, it follows that a secondary effect of the downturn will be increased layoffs as both government and businesses make every effort to improve efficiency. Such being the case, it follows that all workers must likewise take steps to improve their skills and efficiency. The only real question left for Bermudians is whether we will rise to the occasion quickly enough.