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Gambling defeat

Premier Dr. Ewart Brown has strongly resisted the proposition that he is a lame duck, long saying he intends to sprint to his departure date on October and complete an ambitious agenda.

But if those plans included pushing casino gambling through Parliament, they received a sharp rejection on Friday when he was opposed by most of his own Cabinet and backbench, along with the Opposition United Bermuda Party. It seems very unlikely now that casino gambling will be allowed in Bermuda.

It is not that surprising that some Progressive Labour Party MPs hewed to the party's long-standing position on the issue, especially once the churches came out and stated their opposition. This was of course a Green Paper, and Government MPs were not obliged to follow a party line. But it is a testament to the Premier's weakened position that the opposition was so heavy and that he could only rely on his very closest allies for support.

It can also be argued that it is better for the Premier to get this out of the way now, and to lose early, thus preserving time and energy for other initiatives. But the Premier did use a fair amount of political capital on this, personally pushing the initiative, all to no avail.

In part that was due to the early intervention of Deputy Premier Paula Cox, Dr. Brown's most likely successor, who stated that she opposed casino gambling now, and further, felt passage of any such legislation now would handcuff the next Premier.

This was a smart bit of politics because PLP MPs hoping for influence should Ms Cox form the next administration would have realised that supporting the legislation could well be a career destroyer. Indeed, Ms Cox now carries a practical veto over almost all future initiatives. The power, for now, belongs to her.

The gambling debate could not have come along at a better time for Ms Cox; she badly needed to show she can stand up for herself after her "cog in the wheel" statement and her widely criticised Budget. Those issues had thrown into question whether she could effectively lead a Cabinet.

The gambling decision is certainly a step in the right direction, not least because it will be popular among the grassroots PLP membership, but also because Ms Cox's timing clearly demonstrated she wanted to lead on this issue.

The other loser on the night was the Bermuda Democratic Alliance, which supported casino gambling with a range of conditions, which suggested the party had had to hammer out a compromise on the question. That became obvious when Donte Hunt spoke against it while Mark Pettingill and Shawn Crockwell supported it, and later BDA leader Craig Cannonier was forced to issue a statement saying the party still supported the idea despite Mr. Hunt's position.

The BDA fell into the classic trap, and it's one that is especially dangerous for centre parties, of taking a position aimed at pleasing everyone, but in the end pleasing no one.

The UBP too can be happy with the result. It has members who support gambling as all the parties do, but it was able to maintain party discipline and give credible reasons why.

It remains to be seen if this defeat – and it was a defeat – will hurt Dr. Brown in other areas of his agenda. What is clear is that each policy and bill will have to be fought on its merits, because there is very little personal loyalty to the Premier. But Dr. Brown still has some personal strengths on his side, not least his own energy, sharp mind and charisma, plus an absolute refusal to give up. But Friday night suggests he will need them in abundance.