Is Bermuda post-recession?
Our Premier says that Bermuda is post recession. Is this really the case? No. All analysis undertaken by NGOs and others says as much. These are the simple facts:
1. Retail sales have fallen for 27 consecutive months.
2. Gross receipts of building materials and hardware supplies have declined over the last ten years.
3. Debt has increased tenfold in just a few years.
4. Government expenditures have fallen.
5. Wages and salaries have fallen.
6. Registered businesses have fallen
7. Work permits numbers are down
8. Employment incomes are down
9. Air arrivals were at their worst in 30 years in the second quarter of 2009.
10. Container moves reducing.
11. Debt servicing more than the tourism budget.
The only indicators rising are debt and unemployment.
The question that needs to be asked is has there been sound management of the taxpayers' money? The answer is obvious. No. It will in time be shown that this mismanagement is not wholly to do with a global economic downturn. Under these circumstances would you promote the CFO to CEO? No right thinking business would.
The Government's debt burden is also wildly excessive and unsustainable. Whilst rating agencies continue to give Bermuda the thumb's up it is not absolute. Whilst the Government toots the horn about the Fitch rating even the rating agencies themselves have raised red flags about Bermuda's reliance on one income stream, unlike large countries that can rely on manufacturing bases and other industries to sustain debt. Indeed the US has been printing more money to help the situation. The Government's legal debt ceiling is $1.25 billion. At September 30 the debt was $1.218 billion. So, very soon the Government will need to seek parliamentary approval to raise the threshold.
We are sinking fast. We need to curb spending now. We need to make some tough decisions and they must start at the top. Government must implement austerity measures. The fact is we are in for a very rough ride. By the middle of next year we will see the height of problems for the nation's finances. How exactly will the Premier cut $150 million from the budget whilst reducing debt and avoiding job cuts? We need to hear from the Premier now about how the debt will be cut, in detail, so that perhaps some comfort can be given to Bermuda as regards this unsustainable situation. Leading by example is a good start. Small things like reducing the number of GP cars, or even telling Ministers to actually pay for parking in Hamilton would demonstrate that the Government understands what every Bermudian is facing right now, and that is cutbacks. The ending of the use of body guards and police escorts is a good start for which the Premier should be congratulated. More, however, must be done.
The BDA has put forward a number of solutions and ideas for Bermuda. One of the most pressing is the way to assist the retail sector by charging duty at the point of sale. We have also proposed different ways to create jobs in the shrinking economy and ways to save money. We can only do so much and must, like you, rely on the Government to do the right things.
If the Government is to fix the problems Bermuda faces, it will require some real openness. In a recent article in the Economist, the author said "the politics of fiscal truth may be less awful" than the Premier imagines. The article went on to say that "polls in other countries suggest that nowadays tough love can sell." In addition whilst referring to the US, the same applies to Bermuda and that is that "in the long term economics will tell: unless it changes course, [Bermuda] is heading for a bust. If [the Premier] lacks the guts even to start tackling the problem, then ever more Bermudians will get ever more frustrated with [the Government]. How true.
• Michael M. Fahy is the Bermuda Democratic Alliance's spokesperson for Finance