No one has ever questioned Premier Ewart Brown's political skills. He is a master of the sound bite and has an innate ability to enthuse his supporters.

The build-up to his speech last week to the Island is a case in point. Whether it was deliberate or not, news of the speech set the Bermuda talk network going and in the fevered speculation prior to the speech, a great many predictions were made about general elections, Independence and the like. Having heightened expectations, the speech itself turned out to be much blander, and as a result the first reaction of some people was relief.

The speech was primarily a defence of the Progressive Labour Party's performance since the 2007 general election, and more particularly, its performance during the recession for which it has received some criticism. In doing so, the speech was aimed at setting the foundations for the next year, which Dr. Brown separately promised would be radical before he leaves office next October.

To achieve what he wants to do, especially with regard to "reforming" gambling, Dr. Brown had to establish that the Government's efforts thus far have been sound and reasonable, especially on the economy. In effect, the speech was built around the notion that any concrete achievements were entirely a result of the farsightedness of the Government, while any failures were due to external factors outside of the Government's control.

There is some truth in the latter point. Bermuda did not create the global recession and is, to a degree, powerless to end it. But to say that Government is entirely blameless, as Dr. Brown attempted, required more than that. It required the omission of facts and some shading of the truth.

Dr. Brown claimed that some international companies have left Bermuda, not, at least in part, due to political uncertainty in Bermuda, but because they want a more stable tax environment than Bermuda can promise in relation to the United States. Dr. Brown used Switzerland as an example of a country where this was true on the basis that Switzerland has a stronger tax treaty with the US than Bermuda does.

To a degree, that is true. But it omits as much as it includes. Switzerland's tax position in fact is not very stable, as the UBS case, in which hundreds of American account holders are learning. And Switzerland signed a revised tax treaty with the US last month. Giant insurance broker Willis said it would move to Ireland because it needed a more stable environment, without specifying what that meant. And when Brit Insurance moved its domicile from Britain, to the Netherlands, it specifically cited political stability as the reason it was not moving to Bermuda.

Dr. Brown also highlighted the fact that some 600 companies have registered in Bermuda this year. He may have more up to date figures than those available to others, but for the first six months of the year, Government said 445 international companies registered in Bermuda, compared to 679 in the first half of 2008. At the same time, the total number of companies registered in Bermuda fell by three while the number of international enterprises registered in Bermuda fell by 61 to 15,368. So companies may be registering in Bermuda, but not in sufficient numbers to replace those leaving or liquidating.

Dr. Brown also declared that Bermuda's tourism industry, for which he has direct responsibility, is "holding its own" and that declines were predicted last year. Indeed they were. But for the first half of this year, visitor arrivals fell by 11 percent, with air arrivals falling by 17 percent, while spending figures were even worse. And the decline was amongst the worst in the Caribbean region. Even though there seems to have been some improvement in the third quarter, these numbers are hard to defend.

What is true is that Government has lost some $30 million in tax revenue this year. That is not unexpected, and would translate to a three percent decline in revenues, which many businesses would be pleased with in the current economic climate. But that seems to now be a rationale for introducing gambling, when there are many other measures Government can take to either reduce spending or to shore up the economy, and therefore tax revenues. In that context, Dr. Brown's calls for unity, especially on an issue over which is own party is deeply divided, must be met with scepticism.