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Southampton by-election

Neither major party can take much pleasure from last Thursday's Southampton West Central by-election result. But neither has much reason to be unhappy either.

Indeed, the most interesting thing about the by-election may not have been the result but what happened in its aftermath on Friday night in the House of Assembly.

In the by-election itself, the candidates for the two major parties took pretty much the same share of the vote as they did in December 2007 general election, suggesting the result was neither a protest vote against the Progressive Labour Party Government nor a signal of unhappiness on the part of United Bermuda Party supporters with its current divisions.

To some extent, the result may be more disappointing for the PLP than the UBP. Marc Bean was running in the area for the second time in 12 months, and had the advantages of incumbency, notably in the miraculous road repairs that occurred during the election campaign. As a Government Senator, junior tourism minister and Cabinet Office consultant, Mr. Bean also had the benefit of being Premier Dr. Ewart Brown's man, and to some extent this vote would be a referendum on the Premier and his Government as well as on Mr. Bean himself.

Combined with the continued disarray in the UBP – shown by former leader Wayne Furbert's criticism of the selection of Charles Swan for the seat – and an Independent candidate formerly associated with the UBP potentially taking away Mr. Swan's votes, the PLP might have hoped to at least make up some ground in the seat. This clearly did not happen.

Expectations were probably lower for the UBP. It will be relieved to have gotten out with its majority intact. A much reduced majority or loss of the seat would have been disastrous and would have made Opposition Leader Kim Swan's position difficult.

It is a reflection of just how in flux the local political scene is that the UBP might also have expected to make some ground as well, capitalising on the unpopularity of the Premier and unease over the Island's economic direction. Obviously that did not happen either.

In fact, the by-election rarely touched on Island-wide issues, and the candidates remained studiously focused on the nuts and bolts of constituency representation – in Southampton West Central, roads seem to be on the minds of voters more than anything else.

Political observers might conclude, therefore, that not much has changed between December 2007 and today.

But in fact things have changed. As Deputy Premier Paula Cox noted in the House of Assembly, Mr. Swan might not have expected his election to be the lightning rod for a reasoned debate on race in the House which may yet mark a new way forward. But it was.

US President-elect Barack Obama may have something to do with this. But it was interesting to see one MP after another, starting with former Premier and Deputy Speaker Dame Jennifer Smith, affirm that they represent all their constituents, regardless of race.

Opposition Leader Kim Swan said: "You know why everybody is talking about Obama? Because they are asking us 'when are you going to step out of your comfort box and take on what Obama has started?'"

Indeed, the overall tenor of the debate seemed to repudiate the attempt by Government MP Zane DeSilva to bring the Obama debate back to the claim made several weeks ago by Dr. Brown that if white Bermudians voted in the US as they did in Bermuda that they would have voted for John McCain. Opposition MP Pat Gordon-Pamplin's fiery response seemed to show that the same fighting over the same old ground was going to start again.

But then MPs on both sides seemed to show they were tired of the pigeonholing and same old racial politics. They seemed to be saying that they wanted to take Obama's message that people can move forward together.

That's a welcome change in mood. If it continues, it may signal a better future for Bermuda.