The race for the leadership of the Progressive Labour Party, and therefore Bermuda, is coming down to its final days, and one thing is certain: Bermuda will have a new Premier by the end of the week.

Most political observers say that Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Paula Cox remains the favourite to win the leadership against former Cabinet Ministers Dale Butler and Terry Lister.

That's in spite of a very energetic campaign run by Mr. Lister, who has refused to give up despite the heavy odds against him.

Mr. Butler has been less visible, but could still surprise some people on the night.

The nature of the election makes it hard to predict. Although most PLP MPs have lined up behind Ms Cox, that does not mean the delegates elected by the party's constituency committees will do the same.

And speeches during this week's party conference make a difference as well.

In 2006, Dr. Ewart Brown's speech probably sealed his win where his "we had to mislead you" speech in 2003 probably sunk his chances then.

The nature of the election also means it does not have to be conducted in public, which remains a source of dissatisfaction to the 30,000-plus voters who have no say in who their next Premier will be. But there is no system that will please everyone.

Nonetheless, Ms Cox's position as favourite means that she has not had to publicly campaign much and has mainly spoken privately at constitutency branch meetings and elsewhere.

But she did give a speech at Sandys Rotary last week where she fleshed out some ideas. In answers to questions, she also affirmed that she has no intention of changing the policy in term limits.

That pronouncement will hurt her standing with international business, who hoped she might show some flexibility on the issue.

But it won't do her much harm among bedrock PLP supporters.

Similarly, her proposals to "recalibrate" the Government to effect cost savings was negated by her statement that this would not include redundancies. Because pay and benefits make up more than 40 percent of Government expenditure, ring fencing this area, especially when costs like financial assistance and health care are hard to reduce, means it will be hard to substantially reduce the cost of government.

By fixing these areas before the election, Ms Cox also risks limiting her options, especially if the economy and tax revenues deteriorate further.

Mr. Lister has a quite different outlook on the economy and the Government's finances. Where Ms Cox argues that recalibration and better control of capital projects is enough, Mr. Lister believes the economy is in a full blown crisis. Of the two, Mr. Lister's position seems more accurate, but time will tell.

Ms Cox's case was not helped by the publication of the Auditor General's report on the cost overruns and breakdowns in tendering surrounding the construction of the Transport Control Department. There is no doubt that TCD now runs better than it once did; but it cannot be argued that that occurred because proper tendering procedures and standards of good governance were flouted and ignored.

Much of the blame for this can be laid at the feet of the outgoing Premier and his team of civil servants in the Ministry of Transport. But Ms Cox was a Cabinet Minister when it started and Minister of Finance for at least part of the construction. You can't be tasked with protection of the public purse and then not be held accountable when financial controls are ignored.

However, if Ms Cox does what she says and puts in better controls for capital projects, then perhaps Bermuda can feel more comfortable about the future. She would do well to start with the plans for the National Sports Centre swimming pool, where local expertise has been consistently ignored and the Sports Centre Trustees have opted for a form of construction which, according to many, manages the dubious feat of being more expensive and inferior at the same time.

Ms Cox should stop construction now and begin looking into the whole methodology used to choose the pool. No one wants to read another Auditor's Report along the lines of the one just published on TCD. Instead of learning about past mistakes when it's too late, let's avoid making the mistakes now.