Premier Paula Cox's first electoral test comes next month when the voters of Warwick South Central go to the polls to elect a new MP for former Premier Ewart Brown's old seat. By-elections are indicators of a Government's popularity, but care needs to be taken not to invest too much meaning into them.

A thumping result in a traditional safe seat, as this constituency is, does not mean a great deal. And by-elections traditionally have lower turnouts than general elections, which can also skew the results. Nonetheless, they can have some meaning and also have psychological importance. If former Senator Marc Bean is returned by a smaller majority than Dr. Brown enjoyed, or loses the by-election, then that would have repercussions for Ms Cox and the Government.

A smaller majority would mean that the public has not warmed much to Ms Cox. That too seems unlikely as she is currently enjoying something of a honeymoon. Nonetheless, the results bear watching. A smaller majority will not be welcome to Ms Cox. The results will also mean a great deal for Sen. Bean. A big majority will assure him of a comfortable seat in Parliament. A narrow victory in this PLP stronghold would raise questions about his electability, since he has run and lost twice in Southampton already.

Then too he must overcome something of a reputation as a carpetbagger, as a Somerset stalwart. In fairness, the voters of this constituency never held that against Dr. Brown; he was elected here twice and twice previously in the old Warwick West dual constituency. Sen. Bean's other challenge will be explaining some of his utterances in the Senate.

While his supporters may admire his forthrightness, his opponents could make capital out of his belief that stopping speeders is bad for productivity, that ferries and aircraft have outlived their usefulness after ten years and his description of environmental group BEST as "muppets" and "pimps and prostitutes". Those criticisms of a group who arguably improved Warwick's quality of life by fighting to have Southlands turned into a national park and to prevent a beach bar being built at Warwick Long Bay may prove especially problematic for Mr. Bean.

How problematic will depend on the efforts of the Opposition parties, and this may prove to be a more important test for the United Bermuda Party and the Bermuda Democratic Alliance than it is for Ms Cox and her party.

That's because who comes second in this race (leaving out the very unlikely possibility that an Opposition candidate will garner enough votes to upend Mr. Bean) may well decide whether the BDA or the UBP is the future main opposition party.

After some hesitation, the BDA announced that they would run a candidate and have put up Sylvan Richards Jr., an insurance professional and former PLP supporter who became disillusioned with Dr. Brown and with the Government's failure to tackle the crime problem. He will be up against Devrae Noel-Simmons, an athlete and businessman, who will be scrutinized for a drugs conviction, although this has not harmed other political candidates in Bermuda. Certainly Mr, Noel-Simmons was sensible to get it out in the open early.

Neither Opposition candidate is well known nationally and both face an uphill fight in this constituency. The fact they are running against each other as well as Mr. Bean makes this all the more of a challenge. Divided oppositions rarely win elections. But whoever comes second will have gained a huge psychological boost. The stakes are higher for the UBP as the official Opposition, who would expect to come second. Third place could prove to be its death knell. For the BDA, third place would do less harm in terms of expectations, but would suggest the party has failed to establish itself as a real contender.