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To fight another day

It looks as if Premier Dr. Ewart Brown has avoided being unseated in the short term, but there can be no doubt that his position is weaker than ever.

Even if there is no leadership challenge until at least the autumn, Dr. Brown now faces a rebellious backbench who will make the passage of any and all legislation difficult.

That does not require a no-confidence vote in Parliament, as some have suggested, and that is unlikely in any event since the PLP backbenchers are unhappy with Dr. Brown, not with the Government as a whole.

However, a censure vote, like the one United Bermuda Party Premier Dr. David Saul lost on the McDonald's issue in the 1990s, is possible. And the bid to sack Kenneth Dill as head of the Civil Service could turn out to be the perfect vehicle for that.

Short of that, if there are five or more dissident backbenchers, they only need to skip votes on legislation to turn every vote into a cliffhanger in the House of Assembly and that would make life very difficult for Dr. Brown.

The fact that Dr. Brown took the step on Monday of requiring his Ministers to take a "loyalty oath" shows just how weak his position is.

Secure leaders don't have to go to those lengths to ensure loyalty. Equally, the expressions of devotion from the Progressive Labour Party executive and central committee sound a bit like the expressions of support from a football club owner for the manager who is about to be fired; if public support is sought or demanded, things must be pretty bad.

Alternatively, the slavish devotion of statements like the PLP central committee's announcement that "they expressed full confidence in his performance since his election as Party Leader" verges on the North Korean; the Premier's performance has been flawless since 2006. He has not put a foot wrong. Ever. He is perfect. Always.

It can't be taken seriously.

Still, if Dr. Brown has again averted a genuine challenge, just as he did before the October delegates' conference last year, then he will live to fight another day.

But every time this happens, it weakens him a little more and the numbers of those seeking a change grow.

That, in part, is because of the brutal methods that are employed to keep people in line. Apart from loyalty oaths, Party chairman David Burt's raising of the spectre of MPs being disciplined for daring to question the Party Leader brings back memories of the kind of behaviour that once doomed the PLP to serial Opposition.

At the same time, the Premier will be urged to get out among the people as he did last night, and as he did on Saturday, although even then, his team couldn't get it right, as his driver once again illegally parked on Reid Street.

The main point is this. Each time that Dr. Brown faces off a challenge, he is left a little bit weaker. The knives may have been sheathed, but they are sharper than ever.