Last week's collapse of Zoom Airlines was one of those events that managed to be surprising and not in the least bit unexpected.

The collapse caught everyone from passengers to travel agents to Government by surprise, and it would appear that the airline's owners had given no indication that it was in difficulty prior to the collapse. But it also points to the pitfalls of basing a tourism and transportation strategy on the foundation of low cost airlines.

Certainly low cost airlines have delivered affordable airfares to visitors to Bermuda and hundreds of other destinations. But there always seemed to be something unrealistic about offering fares that were so low that they could not be matched by so-called legacy airlines.

Low fare airlines were built on a combination of low fuel prices, incentives offered by smaller airports and, in some cases, the low cost benefits associated from having new aircraft. Zoom was a relatively late entry into this market and seems to have been hit even harder than most by fuel costs, which would have a greater effect on a long haul carrier like Zoom than some of its short haul rivals.

But that does not mean that shorter haul carriers are immune from these same problems. Although fuel prices have fallen from their summer highs, they remain much higher than they were 12 months ago, and it is likely that passenger loads will fall now as well, as summer travel ends and consumers worried about the economy cut back on travel.

Bermuda's other main low cost airline partner is Jet Blue which was the darling of the industry a few years ago. While industry observers do not believe it is in danger of collapse, it could end up being merged with another airline, and in the meantime, it is following the lead of other airlines in charging for "freebies"; in its case, blankets and pillows.

USA 3000, which offers three flights a week to Baltimore, recently withdrew from the Florida market, citing high fuel costs.

While it may be unlikely than any of the other airlines serving Bermuda will fold, what is certain is that they will be looking to trim capacity and routes. So no one should be surprised if more flights to Bermuda go this winter.

So tourism's woes seem likely to continue. If fewer flights from the US are possible, then reductions in visitors from the UK and Europe are certain with the collapse of Zoom. That's too bad because Europe, where both the pound and the euro remain strong against the dollar, has been one of the few strong markets for Bermuda this year. Now, with reduced capacity, Bermuda is unlikely to benefit as much from that part of the market as was hoped.

Bermuda's tourism industry has weakened this year after showing signs of recovery for a couple of years. Some of this year's weakness has been due to factors outside of the Island's control; others, notably our lack of price competitiveness, have been allowed to happen.

In any event, Zoom's collapse suggests that the Island's "platinum period" is still some way off.