There was a slight glimmer of hope in the third quarter tourism arrival statistics released by Premier and Tourism Minister Dr. Ewart Brown this week.

While the overall arrivals figures fell by 22 percent compared to the July to September figures for 2007, this was almost entirely due to the expected decline in cruise ship arrivals caused by the lack of ships in Hamilton this year.

Air arrivals were virtually flat, by contrast, which given the economic turmoil suffered in the period, might have been something to be happy about.

Dr. Brown noted that air arrivals from the US had dropped significantly, but this was offset by increases in arrivals from Canada and the UK, whch occurred despite the loss of Zoom Airlines flights from London during the period.

However, a closer examination of the statistics suggests that even this ray of hope isn't much to celebrate.

As Shadow Tourism Minister Michael Dunkley pointed out, the number of leisure visitors to the Island continued their declining trend in the period, and were offset by a rise in business travellers.

As has been debated ad nauseum, this trend further begs the question of whether the Department of Tourism, whose primary responsibility is to attract vacationers, is being effective, since its efforts are only indirectly responsible for business travellers.

The more worrying statistic concerns visitor spending, the only true measure of tourism's value to the economy, which by the Department's own estimates, fell by $20 million – a direct cost to all of the individuals who serve in the tourism industry, as Mr. Dunkley noted.

To be sure, some of this decline was to be expected; even those visitors whom Bermuda is attracting are likely to be watching their spending more carefully. But it is worrying for a high cost destination.

What should add to the concern is the precipitate decline in visitors staying in commercial properties, which slumped by 17.7 percent in the period. The number of bednights for the quarter, which gives a better indication of spending, were down less, but were still off 12 percent.

In recent years, the Ministry has been able to say that lower air arrivals and lower hotel bednights were caused by the lack of hotel inventory and closures of properties like Belmont, Wyndham and Harmony Club. That can't be said this year as there have been no major hotel closures since 2007. Indeed, there may have been a slight increase as fractional units came on line.

So, while air arrivals remained flat, this was entirely due to people coming to the Island to stay in private homes, presumably with friends and family.

It is also worth noting that the mini-boom in air arrivals from Canada and the UK may not last, with or without the additional airlift from Canada that Dr. Brown has been predicting for more than a year now.

This sector too will be affected by the economic turmoil in more ways than one.

The UK is in recession, which will dampen demand for holidays.

More importantly, both the UK pound and the Canadian dollar have lost much of their buying power against the Bermuda dollar since the end of the third quarter.

For part of that period, the pound was trading at $2 and by the end of September it had fallen to $1.83. It is now trading at $1.50, a decline of 25 percent from July. The Canadian dollar was trading at close to par in July, slipped to 95 cents by the end of September and is now at 80 cents – a 20 percent decline.

Bermuda is now far more expensive for these visitors than it was just two months ago, and by that measure alone, it will be hard to sustain the increases seen in the summer from these markets.

With the US almost certainly in recession now, any rebound in tourism seems to be a long way off.