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<Bz43>Wall Street's run conjures worries of another dot-com implosion

NEW YORK (AP) — It was impossible to escape the comparisons with 2000 on Wall Street this past week.Not only did the Standard & Poor's 500 index pass 1,500, a level the market has not seen since the dot-com boom, but the Dow Jones industrial average also ratcheted higher. Rising stock prices — which come amid a slowing economy — have some on Wall Street wondering if investors are making the same mistakes they made during the high-tech bubble.

Market watchers believe stocks have more juice in them, but not like the late 1990s, when investors indiscriminately snapped up shares as if there was no end in sight to the big rally. This time around, Wall Street is taking a more measured approach — and showing signs that a long-awaited, and perhaps needed, correction is beginning to form.

"Pullbacks are healthy and gets rid of the froth in the market," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist for The Hartford. "There's conviction out there, and big orders are coming in from people who don't want to miss out. But, it's the correction that will bring back the retail investors."

Indeed, the biggest difference between the go-go '90s and the current market's momentum rests on the retail investor.

With stocks having risen steadily since recovering from a late-February plunge, many analysts believe Wall Street is overdue for a correction. But, institutional investors and hedge funds show no signs of complying — sending stocks up on good news or bad. The latest example came Friday after a government report showed disappointing job growth in April, and major indexes still finished higher.

But retail investors have largely missed out on the rally. And there is mounting evidence — such as more volume pouring into the market — that they are beginning to come back in. And that's interpreted as both a negative and positive for the market.

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at New York-based brokerage Avalon Partners, said the rush back into stocks by individual investors might be another sign the market is approaching a near-term peak. This investor class is typically the last group to join a rally before consolidation begins.

But, it's those pullbacks — which analysts say should average about 10 percent — that set up the markets for further advances.

A broad swath of retail investors are mindful of what happened at the market's peak in 2000, when a tech-driven rally became overvalued in a frenzied environment.

Timing is everything as investors now try to determine how much is left out of the bull run.

"I think we're looking at an aging bull here, and can expect a pull back," Cardillo said. "Are we looking at stocks becoming unfashionable? No, I don't think so. The market needs to rest and take a breather before it can continue to climb higher this year."

Strong catalysts like corporate earnings growth convince bulls that this year the Dow will touch 14,000, while the broader S&P 500 index reach 1,600. Technical analysts believe stock prices, relative to how much companies are projected to earn this year, are still in a comfortable zone — unlike the over-inflated stock prices rampant in the late '90s.

US companies are still turning in fairly robust results as made evident when first-quarter results managed to impress Wall Street. Stock prices for these companies still remain fairly valued since the market's run has been more measured, and far less volatile than the years leading up to the tech crash.

Also powering stocks is continued acquisition activity, like speculation on Friday about Microsoft Corp.'s interest in Internet portal Yahoo Inc.