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Frontline plunges after missing analysts' estimates

LONDON (Bloomberg) — Frontline Ltd., the world's largest owner of supertankers, fell in Oslo trading after missing analyst estimates for third-quarter profit because it failed to lock in rental rates before the market plunged.

The shares fell 23 kroner, or 10 percent, to 200 kroner, the biggest drop since November 6. The stock has fallen 23 percent this year, valuing the company at 15.6 billion kroner ($2.2 billion).

Net income rose to $107.8 million, or $1.39 a share, from $22.7 million, or 30 cents, a year earlier, Bermuda-based Frontline said on Friday in a statement. The company was expected to report profit of $144 million, based on the median estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

"The numbers are disappointing, the dividend is disappointing and their guidance wasn't too optimistic," said Anders Karlsen, an analyst at Nordea Securities who has a "buy" recommendation on the stock. "I need to review my numbers."

Tanker owners are already contending with recessions in the US, Japan and Europe that have sapped demand for energy. The 13 members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries curtailed production for three consecutive months. The group also agreed to reduce output this month.

The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 28 nations, cut its global oil demand forecast the most in 12 years on November 13.

"We have most likely not seen the full effect of the financial turmoil we are witnessing worldwide," Frontline said in the statement.

Should credit markets fail to improve in the next three years, Frontline may have to use "operational earnings" to meet $300 million of commitments to buy new vessels, constraining its ability to pay future dividends, the company said.

"Frontline is in a good position to get funding, but whether they will be able to raise debt at the same level as before, that might be questionable," Karlsen said.

The shipping line leased out its vessels on short-term contracts in the quarter, a strategy the company said was "wrong." While rates in June and July were the best-ever for those months, benchmark hiring costs in August averaged 61 percent less than the previous month.

The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, the global benchmark, has fallen to 61.8 Worldscale points from almost 277 points at the end of last year. Worldscale points are a percentage of a nominal rate, or flat rate, for more than 320,000 specific routes.

Profit was also reduced by $29.3 million because of the value of its stake in Overseas Shipholding Group Inc., the largest US operator of very large crude carriers. OSG declined 27 percent in the quarter in New York trading.

The company leased out two supertankers to store oil and is in talks for a third, interim chief executive officer Jens Martin Jensen said on a conference call with analysts, investors and journalists.

The cost of crude oil in six months time is $7 to $8 a barrel higher than the price of more immediate supplies, compensating companies that store the fuel, he said.

Frontline will continue sailing through the Gulf of Aden, following naval patrols, Jensen said. That may delay journeys, he said. The company had previously said it might divert carriers around South Africa because of an escalation in pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia, next to the Gulf of Aden.

Frontline will pay a dividend of 50 cents a share, or 36 percent of profit. The company previously said it aimed to pay out all of its profit in dividends.