Log In

Reset Password

Bernanke to make public debut

NEW YORK (AP) ? In his 18 years as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan wielded his economic testimony to Congress with maddening precision, saying just enough to get his point across about budget deficits and inflation ? while leaving Wall Street guessing nearly every time on the Fed?s interest rate policy.

Today, Greenspan?s successor, Ben Bernanke, heads to the House of Representatives for his inaugural semi-annual report on the economy, followed by a similar report to the Senate tomorrow. Wall Street expects the new Fed chairman to be just as vigilant on inflation as his predecessor, with the promise of interest rate hikes inherent in that stance. But they?re also hoping Bernanke can be more frank in his economic updates.

?There?s a definite hope that Bernanke will be clearer, more transparent and straightforward than Greenspan,? said Kathy Bostjancic, senior US economist at Merrill Lynch. ?Greenspan talked very specifically about a handful of topics. We?re hoping Bernanke will talk in broader strokes.?

After 18 years of testimony to Congress, Greenspan single-handedly coined a new, opaque way of discussing economics ? ?Fed-speak?. Designed to minimise the impact that more direct statements could have on the market, and perhaps give the Fed more wiggle-room in setting policy, Fed-speak was aggressively parsed on Wall Street as analysts and investors attempted to divine meaning from the long words and couched phrasing.

That could be due to Greenspan?s roots as an economic consultant, where he was charged with providing very detailed answers to very specific questions and trained to remain on point. Bernanke, on the other hand, comes from the academic world, where ideas are frequently kicked around with candour.

?Bernanke is a collegial educator, and that could make for a more interesting testimony,? said Frederic H. Dickson, senior vice president and market strategist for D.A. Davidson & Co. ?He may very well open up new lines of questioning, new paths of discussion. It?ll be interesting how he responds to questions, whether he sticks to a script or not.?

With stocks mired in uncertainty, Bernanke?s willingness to speak frankly could be a boon to Wall Street, even if it appears likely the Fed will continue raising interest rates for the time being.

Ever since January?s stock market rally, when the Dow Jones industrials topped 11,000 for the first time in 4 years, concerns about the economy have kept stocks volatile, but ultimately flat on the year. The economy is slowing, though there?s conflicting evidence on whether its a graceful, manageable decline in growth or something closer to a screeching halt.

In the midst of this slowdown, the Fed remains very alert for signs of inflation, and could feel that despite slower growth, rates may need to rise to combat rising prices. Yet if the economy slows too much, those high interest rates could exacerbate the problem.

?I feel the markets are set up for stern, hawkish testimony,? Bostjancic said. ?And unless he?s extremely hawkish, there could be room for the market to rally a little bit.?