Global warming is a reality, a Bermuda scientist warned insurers yesterday.

Dr. Tony Knap, the director of the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS), which was until recently called the Bermuda Biological Station, said: ?The evidence is there to suggest that the planet is warming.

?Whether it is cyclical remains a debate. Thousands of scientists around the world have produced a body of evidence that suggests it is happening. It?s now down to the contrarians to prove it?s not taking place. The best body of evidence is that it is happening.?

Explaining how scientists had come to different conclusions for some time, Dr. Knap said: ?The US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) made a mistake in their calculations. The problem was that the data from 7,000 ground stations and the satellites didn?t match.?

Now that the error has been corrected, Dr. Knap said, global warming is ?a confirmed fact. What remains uncertain is the cause.?

Dr. Knap was speaking at the Bermuda Captive Conference at the Fairmont Southampton, where he outlined for delegates the Risk Prediction Initiative that BIOS and Bermuda?s reinsurance companies have been working on for ten years.

?The question is: global warming, compared to what?? Dr. Knap asked. ?We know that there is a correlation between rising amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and rising temperatures. We have hundreds of samples dating back thousands of years on which to base the data.

?It?s a question of the precautionary principle: if you knew for certain it was happening, and that you were the cause, would you go on doing what you were doing that was causing it??

Practically speaking, Dr. Knap said: ?You can?t tell China and India not to have the same economic benefits as us and use energy the way we do. People are saying that we should move out of an oil- and gas-based world, and move to nuclear fission.?

Reality or not, Dr. Knap was challenged by a delegate who dismissed the notion that mankind bears any responsibility for global warming.

In other final day sessions, delegates heard a presentation on practical applications for captive reinsurance, a discussion of actuarial issues and a panel discussion on reinsurance contracts.