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Big stocks don't sizzle, but they're safe

BOSTON (Bloomberg) ? The largest stocks rarely sizzle. Yet many people like them for their safety, stability and liquidity.

Each September since 2001, I have offered ratings on the 20 largest US stocks. My ?buy? rated big caps have provided an average annual return of about ten percent, including dividends.

My ?neutral? rated stocks have returned 4.8 percent on average, and my ?avoids? have returned 1.8 percent.

This year, two new stocks have broken into the top 20. AT&T Inc. (T) makes its debut at No. 17. Google Inc. (GOOG) is No. 19. Out are Coca-Cola Co. (KO), which fell to 23rd, and Amgen Inc. (AMGN), which dropped to 30th.

Here?s what I think of the giants now.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), market value $405 billion ? Buy. For the sixth consecutive year, I recommend Exxon. From September 24, 2001, through September 1, 2006, it returned 113 percent, including dividends. With the stock at 11 times earnings and debt only seven percent of equity, I expect more.

General Electric Co. (GE), market value $352 billion ? Avoid. GE?s return on equity has shrunk four years in a row, from 26 percent in 2001 to less than 15 percent last year. The stock sells for $34.14, or 18 times earnings. I?m interested at about $28.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), market value $254 billion ? Avoid. Microsoft stock fetches more than six times sales and more than six times book value (assets minus liabilities per share). Earnings growth, more than 50 percent in 1999, has mostly been less than ten percent ever since.

Citigroup Inc. (C), market value $244 billion ? Buy. Citigroup?s earnings have grown at a 13 percent clip the past five years, and its dividend yield of almost four percent is attractive.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC), market value $234 billion ? Buy. The nation?s second-largest bank offers a lovely dividend yield, more than four percent. Like Citigroup, it sells for 12 times earnings.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE), market value $204 billion ? Buy. I went to a ?buy? on Pfizer in 2004 ? prematurely, as it turned out. In the past year, however, the stock has gained 14 percent. At 13 times earnings I think the maker of Lipitor, Viagra and Zoloft is good value.

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), market value $195 billion ? Avoid. The consumer-products king has climbed to about $62 from about $36 in the past five years, while I kept saying to avoid it. I like last year?s acquisition of Gillette Co. (G), but not enough to pay 23 times earnings for P&G.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), market value $191 billion ? Avoid. For the past five years, I?ve slapped an ?avoid? tag on Wal-Mart. During that time, it is up less than onepercent, versus 42 percent for the Standard & Poor?s 500 Index. The stock is getting cheaper, but earnings growth has slowed nine percent last fiscal year).

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), market value $189 billion ? Neutral. J&J is terrifically profitable, but its stock is still too expensive for me at 4.7 times book value and 3.8 times revenue.

Altria Group Inc. (MO), market value $175 billion ? Avoid. The food-and-tobacco titan hasn?t had earnings growth of ten percent or more since 2002.

American International Group Inc. (AIG), market value $167 billion ? Buy. AIG paid $1.6 billion this year to settle allegations of accounting irregularities, fraud and bid-rigging. Chief Executive Officer Hank Greenberg was ousted. The shake-up knocked the worldwide property-and-casualty insurer?s shares down to 16 times earnings, cheap for this company.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), market value $159 billion ? Buy. Even after a 39 percent return in the past year, JPMorgan shares are reasonable at 14 times earnings. Analysts anticipate a 21 percent earnings jump this year.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/B), market value of $148 billion ? Buy. At 14 times earnings, why wouldn?t you want to own a piece of the company run by Warren Buffett?

Chevron Corp. (CVX), market value $144 billion ? Buy. It plays second fiddle to Exxon in the oil patch, but strikes me as a major bargain at nine times earnings. Earnings have increased at a 13 percent annual pace the past five years.

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), market value $135 billion ? Avoid. Earnings grew only 5.4 percent last year. Even though analysts look for a good 2006, I can?t bring myself to recommend Cisco at 23 times recent earnings.

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), market value $123 billion ? Buy. This is the first time in six years that I?ve recommended IBM. It sells for 14 times earnings and its earnings grew at 14 percent last year. I think it is finally good value.

AT&T, market value $123 billion ? Neutral. Shares of the former SBC Communications Inc. seem fairly valued to me at 16 times earnings, with a dividend yield of 4.2 percent.

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), market value $117 billion Neutral. At a multiple of 15, Wells Fargo also seems fairly valued. I?m dropping it to neutral from ?buy.?

Google, market value $116 billion ? Avoid. The sexiest new stock of the past five years, Google went public at $85 in August, 2004, and rose to $471.63 in January, 2006. As of September 1, it traded at $378.60. That works out to 52 times earnings and 13 times revenue ? too high, in my book.

Intel Corp. (INTC), market value $114 billion ? Neutral. I recommended Intel stock in June, but since then the semiconductor maker?s stock has risen ten percent, while earnings have weakened.

Disclosure notes: I own Bank of America for several clients. I own Exxon Mobil, Citigroup, Pfizer, Berkshire Hathaway and Chevron for a few clients. I also own Berkshire Hathaway personally, and an affiliate of my firm owns it.

@EDITRULE:

John Dorfman, president of Thunderstorm Capital in Boston, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or its clients may own or trade investments discussed in this column.