Log In

Reset Password

Danger signs of overheating economy in new GDP figures

The news that Bermuda has the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in the world should be seen as another danger sign of an overheating economy.

That is the view of economist and United Bermuda Party Senator E.T. (Bob) Richards, who said that the booming economy was failing to benefit too many Bermudians and the problem was likely to get worse.

While the construction industry is flourishing, Sen. Richards said it was delivering a glut of high-end residential units, rather than the affordable homes that Bermudians needed.

On Friday, the Government published a report that showed the Island?s GDP ? the market value of all goods and services produced ? rose by 9.1 percent in 2005 to a total $4.85 billion.

That equates to a GDP per head of $76,403, which is more than $10,000 higher than any other country for 2005, according to the Central Intelligence Agency?s World Factbook web-site.

Sen. Richards said the figures looked impressive, but they confirmed his previously expressed theory that the Island?s economy was overheating.

?The main danger of overheating is that there is an upward pressure on prices, particularly the price of shelter (accommodation),? Sen. Richards said yesterday.

?The construction industry has built many high-end condos, but it hasn?t been building the kind of units that local people have a big demand for. This puts an upward pressure on prices and also causes us to bring in more foreign labour.?

GDP figures showed that construction industry output grew by 21.3 percent in 2005, eight percent more than international business, and the sector also added 264 new employees.

Sen. Richards said the high GDP per capita figure was something to be proud of, but it was not an accurate measure of Bermudians? prosperity.

?$76,000 sounds like a great number, but you have to relate it to how much things cost,? the Senator said. ?And another aspect of the overheating economy is the cost of living in Bermuda, which continues to be driven upwards.

?Also the average number is just an average. It does not mean everybody makes it. If you have a certain number of people making $5 million, then that will skew the average. A lot of people are in the $25,000 area and they are struggling.?

But how can the Government cool down the economy in an attempt to help Bermudians who are being economically left behind?

?One thing that can be done is to look very carefully at the number of building permits we give and the types and numbers of buildings we give permission for,? Sen. Richards said. ?That would be a good place to start.?

And the Opposition Senator did not see things getting better in the near future.

?I think it?s going to get worse,? he said. ?I think we will see lower interest rates in the US and Bermuda this year and that will translate into more lending in Bermuda and that will fuel the building boom all over again.

?Those are the factors we need to plan for, but there does not seem to be any plan. We can?t afford things to be so laissez-faire any more.?

Sen. Richards also expressed his concern about the GDP figures in a letter to , in which he wrote: ?Naturally the real estate sector rose by 10.3%, well above the five-year average growth rate. Government says this is due to ?limited supplies... driving up rents?.

?Of course, the objective of the construction sector is to increase the supply of buildings, but in fact the industry has not been creating the supply where it is needed most (neither has Government!). It is this disconnect that is contributing to the crisis in affordable housing.?

He concluded: ?True prosperity is not merely what you earn, but how much those dollars can buy, and the cost of living in Bermuda being what it is, particularly in housing, the reality for many Bermudians is not as favourable as the report implies.?