Weather patterns and ocean currents suggest that we should all brace ourselves for a greater number of intense storms in the future, according to a report on global climate published by Aon Re.

And the report also details experts? predictions that we will see tropical activity 40 percent above normal levels during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.

Aon?s 87-page ?Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report? lists the major natural catastrophes during 2006.

It was compiled by Aon Re?s Impact Forecasting unit, whose executive vice-president and and chief operating officer Steve Jakubowski warned that the absence of hurricanes making landfall in the US in 2006 should not encourage complacency in the future.

?As evidenced by the recent El Ni?o patterns in the Pacific and the resulting effects to the Atlantic basin, continued vigilance is required on a global basis,? Mr. Jakubowski said.

?This study reinforces the need for catastrophe modelling and the focus needs to remain on the big picture, rather than on activity within a single year or a single region.?

After a string of damaging storms in 2004 and 2005, forecasters got it wrong when they predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2006 as well. Despite unusually warm Atlantic waters that were expected to fuel a large number of powerful storms, last year saw only nine named systems, compared to 28 in 2005.

Wind patterns and dust storms in the Sahara squelched 2006?s tropical disturbances before they started, forecasters have said.

However, the Aon Re report concluded that global tropical activity was normal last year, with 31 tropical cyclones recorded in the northern hemisphere. And the number of more intense storms (categories three, four and five on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) exceeded historical levels by 45 percent.

Hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin was only 1.2 events behind the historical norm, the report added, and, given the abnormally high ocean temperatures, the chance that none of those hurricanes would make landfall was just 25 percent.

The Aon Re report also highlights the predictions for 2007 made last month by renowned Colorado University forecasters Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach.

They expect the period from next July through November to see 14 named storms, compared to the historical average of 9.6, and seven hurricanes, 1.1 more than normal. Net cyclone activity is expected to be 40 percent above normal.

The experts said the El Ni?o cycle ? ocean current patterns that affect global weather ? developed late last summer and helped to suppress the formation of hurricanes. However the cycle will diminish by late spring, leaving ?neutral? El Ni?o conditions, increasing the chance of intense storms.

The 2005 hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, which caused $100 billion in losses in 2005 occured in El Ni?o neutral conditions, as did Hurricane Andrew in 1992.