Log In

Reset Password

The 2005 forecasters and their top picks for the year

Alexander Farman-Farmaian, portfolio manager, W.P. Stewart & Co.Mr. Farman-Farmaian manages some $2 billion in accounts, with many coming from European and non-US clients.W.P. Stewart & Co. is a portfolio management company that focuses on high-quality mid to large growth companies. Mr. Farman-Farmaian?s portfolios are concentrated in 15 to 20 issues, and he uses a discount to present value methodology to appraise their attractiveness.

Alexander Farman-Farmaian, portfolio manager, W.P. Stewart & Co.

Mr. Farman-Farmaian manages some $2 billion in accounts, with many coming from European and non-US clients.

W.P. Stewart & Co. is a portfolio management company that focuses on high-quality mid to large growth companies. Mr. Farman-Farmaian?s portfolios are concentrated in 15 to 20 issues, and he uses a discount to present value methodology to appraise their attractiveness.

He started his professional career in 1984 as a securities analyst at William DeBroe Hill, Chaplin & Company, a stock brokerage firm in London. He then worked at Midland Bank plc. in London as an economic analyst in its international division.

Mr. Farman-Farmaian joined W.P. Stewart & Company in 1988. In addition to company research and portfolio management responsibilities, he works on developing the firm?s economic and technical overview.

Mr. Farman-Farmaian holds a BA in economics from Princeton University. He is a member of the Economics Club of New York, and of the Princeton Club of New York where he is a board member and the president. He is also a member of Princeton?s alumni executive committee and president of the 161 East 79th Corporation.

Predictions for the year ahead:

Oil: predicted could hit as high as $50 to $60 per barrel of crude in 2005

US Gross Domestic Product: Mr. Farman-Farmaian predicted that the GDP growth rate could average out between 2.5 and three percent in 2005.

Year-over-year S&P profit growth in 2005: slows to around 7.5 percent.

US Fed Funds rates in 2005: between three and 3.5 percent, and Fed likely to finish raising interest rates.

US fiscal policy: no tax cuts, government spending reduced somewhat, Elvis seen on Mars

Equity markets, worst performer: deep cyclicals. Best performer: steady growth stocks, such as consumer goods and stocks that show growth in a slow earnings environment. Mr. Farman-Farmaian said growth and large cap stocks should outperform.

Fixed income forecast: Credit spreads will widen, treasuries will be best performing sector of the US bond market, the treasury curve will be flatter, the dollar is predicted to move up against the Euro.

For the best performing commodity, Mr. Farman-Farmaian?s money is on orange juice.

Major Indices: Predicted a general increase in major indicies, saying they should end 2005 ?higher than now?.

Stock pick: Telecommunications chip manufacturer Qualcomm, which Mr. Farman-Farmaian cited as the next Microsoft. ?This is not a frou-frou company, but a multi-million dollar monopoly. This is the dominant player in the business.?

@EDITRULE:

Michael Thompson, director of research, Thompson Financial

Leading Thompson Financial?s cross content research team, Mr. Thompson regularly appears on CNBC Squawk Box and is cited frequently in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Barron?s and the Economist.

Prior to joining Thompson Financial, Thompson was a risk strategist at RiskMetrics Group, a JP Morgan spin-off that provides financial analytics and technology solutions. Mr. Thompson joined the RiskMetrics group from BulldogResearch.com, a company he co-founded in 1999.

BulldogResearch.com became the first financial research company to provide a real-time evaluation of the performance of Wall Street analysts. Before BulldogResearch.com, Mr. Thompson worked in investment management in Lehman Brother?s private client services group. Prior to that, he was part of the original high-net worth team within the JP Morgan Securities private client group.

Predictions for the year ahead

Oil: predicted prices could fall and set his 2005 target at $28 to $30 per barrel of crude.

US Gross Domestic Product: Mr. Thompson predicted that the US?s GDP growth rate would slow from above four percent in 2004 and set a target of about 3.5 percent for 2005. He called the GDP growth seen in the US last year as ?powerful; that?s an engine. The US economy is big and strong and powerful,? and he said GDP above 3.5 percent this year would keep that engine ticking along.

Fed Funds: 3.25 percent, based on June 05 futures; 3.5 to 3.75 percent based on September EuroDollar number and at December, 31, four percent. The four percent level was said to currently be from the more aggressive camp.

In the near term, watch for the word ?measured? to drop from Fed commentary.

US fiscal policy: Stable. Continued deficits albeit slightly smaller in 2005 than in 2004. No new tax cuts as [Bush] administrations will focus its political capital on social security reform. The earliest social security reform action would be put into place would be 2006. Mr. Thompson said the challenge with any budget analysis was that defense numbers are not included by US.

Equity market forecasts for the end of 2005:

? S&P 500 Index will reach 1,342 points according to Thompson Market Model

? The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 11,814 points based on the five year monthly average Beta to the S&P 500

? NasdaqComp will reach 2,510 points also based on the five year monthly average Beta to the S&P 500 while the Russell 2000 index is predicted to hit 702 points

Fixed income forecast: Spreads are likely as tight as they will get. High yield will be most likely to outperform as they should see fundamental improvements to cash flow of underlying economy performing north of three percent GDP. It is also unlikely that any of the main fixed income classes will turn in negative returns, though the fundamental questions that arose with the GSE?s would make them less attractive than other sectors.

The fixed income market will be supported by the technical imbalance of supply and demand driven largely by the loss of duration in treasuries/mortgage sectors and the increase in foreign participation in US debt markets.

Sector to watch for outperformance: Mr. Thompson said to watch healthcare, pointing out that five of the company?s top ten picks were from this sector (see below).

Best-performing commodity: copper.

Other attractive sectors: Energy. ?This is a no-brainer. These guys are minting money. Every quarter you wonder what record Exxon is going to break next.?

Information technology: ?These guys were the ugly ducklings and they grew at 15 percent? in 2004.

Sector to watch for underperformance: Automotive, although he said that care should be taken to really analyse where automobile manufacturers are seeing their returns, saying you?ll find that earnings are often not related to the core business.

Dollar: The dollar will strengthen against the pound to $1.80

Top ten stocks:* United Health Group, Zimmer Holdings, Caremark Rx, Stryker, Bed Bath & Beyond, Dell, Fifth Third, Coach, Express Scripts, Staples

Worst performing stocks: Dana, Applied Materials, Novell, Ford Motor, Valero Energy, Sunoco, Nucor, Ashland, General Motors, PMC-Sierra

*Based on a number of Thompson holding a high expectation of growth for each of these stocks