NEW YORK (Reuters) — Consumers packed malls and store parking lots over the US Thanksgiving holiday weekend, leading many to expect this year’s holiday sales figures could blow away expectations and lift retail stocks.But early anecdotal data suggest heavy discounting drove demand. If that’s true, sales gains will likely be less than last year and retail stocks could tread water for the remainder of the year.

“You already know it’s a high traffic day,” said Laura Richardson, a consumer analyst at BB&T Capital Markets.

“What I’m looking at is traffic relative to what I’m used to seeing and the promotional efforts retailers are making. A lot of companies I follow are cutting (prices) more than last year and not getting great traffic. That’s not a great sign for sales or profits.”

Early-bird “doorbuster” promotions had customers lining up outside stores like electronics retailer Best Buy Co. Inc. before dawn Friday. But the deals that attracted them, like Panasonic Plasma high-definition televisions for less than $1,000, were just the same tactics retailers have used the last couple of years, said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for MasterCard’s SpendingPulse.

Retailers “see traffic like this every year,” McNamara said, adding that he was surprised by the amount of buzz generated by photos showing consumers pushing and shoving for the season’s hot toys and electronic gadgets.

Indeed, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. predicted a rare decline in monthly sales on Saturday, even as US bargain hunters jammed stores at the start of the holiday season.

The world’s biggest retailer estimated that November sales fell 0.1 percent at its US stores open at least a year — a closely watched retail measure known as same-store sales.

The company had cut prices on some popular toys and other holiday items as early as October, eager to revive growth after back-to-back months of disappointing sales in September and October, but Saturday’s report suggested that the early discounts were not enough to reverse the poor sales trend.

The National Retail Federation trade group said on Saturday it was leaving its holiday sales growth prediction unchanged at 5 percent, down from last year’s 6.1 percent growth. The group’s spokesman Scott Krugman said there was nothing in Friday’s sales activity to change its forecast.

Overall, sales momentum was a little slower heading into 2006 season. Last year, the United States was showing year-over-year growth of 7 to 10 percent, excluding auto sales, heading into the holiday season. This year is a different story, with growth rates of 2 to 5 percent.

Still, there’s no denying that store traffic trounced many retailers’ expectations.

Chelsea Property Group Inc. opened 25 of its 36 outlet centres at midnight after Thanksgiving. Lines formed at the most popular stores including Gap Inc.’s Banana Republic and Gap, as well as Coach Inc.’s outlet stores hours before the doors swung open, said representative Michele Rothstein.

“Because of so much excitement, we had people show up at centres we didn’t even open (at midnight),” Rothstein said. “We will have to look at this (concept) across the board because it appears that the consumer has really taken to this concept of the early open.”

She said it was too early to evaluate sales, but Chelsea Property Group, which is a division of Simon Property Group Inc. , suspected that higher traffic from the year before also meant higher sales.

“I was blown away,” said Beth Ann Schroeder, Disney Store division manager for the Northern New Jersey and New York area. “I think sales were higher and traffic was higher. The two definitely go together.”

She said demand was particularly strong for the promotional toys such as items related to the Disney animated movie “Cars” and the Barbie 12 Dancing Princesses line.