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Oil profits may not boost TSX

TORONTO (Reuters) — Canadian oil companies may pump a gusher of profits when they report fourth-quarter results over the next few weeks, but the recent skid in oil prices is likely to put a lid on any rise in their stock prices.Oil prices were on a downward path for much of the fourth quarter, but the fall so far in January has been precipitous. US crude prices have already dropped about 17 percent this year and are roughly 35 percent below last year’s record high of $78.40 a barrel.

That may not dent the fourth-quarter performance of Canada’s heavyweight energy companies, but it could alter their financial forecasts for coming quarters.

“I expect there could be some disappointment, particularly from the resource sector,” said Patricia Croft, chief economist at Phillips, Hager & North.

“It seems like analysts have not yet sharpened their pencils and trimmed their estimates to take their estimates for earnings more in line with current prices in commodities.”

Some of the country’s top oil companies — Shell Canada , Petro-Canada and Suncor Energy — are due to report quarterly results next week.

This week, a number of energy trusts decided to slash their payouts. All blamed either lower natural gas or oil prices for their decisions, as well as Ottawa’s plan to tax income trusts.

Enterra Energy Corp. decided to cut its February distribution by 50 percent, Precision Drilling Trust lowered its January distribution by 39 percent, and Shiningbank Energy Income Fund cut its distribution by 35 percent.

Since the energy sector accounts for roughly 25 percent of the Toronto Stock Exchange’s key S&P/TSX composite index , any disappointment from energy companies in the coming weeks could send the market into a downward spiral.