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<Bz33>Time for Brown, King to speak up about the pound

As sterling reaches its highest level against the US currency in 14 years, it is hard to find anyone who doesn’t have an opinion on the $2 pound.

The papers are full of stories about the bargains to be had by popping over to New York for a spot of Christmas shopping. British exporters are moaning about the damage to their businesses. Economists opine about whether the global economy is finally unravelling.

Only two men remain silent. Gordon Brown, the UK chancellor, and Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England. When it comes to currency movements, both men are about as chatty as a pair of Trappist monks. Oddly enough, they are also the two men in charge of the British economy.

On one level that is understandable. The British historical experience of exchange-rate management is so traumatic that most British politicians would rather own up to worshipping Satan than having any kind of view on the currency markets.

On another level, it is quite strange. An overvalued currency has the potential to inflict massive damage on the UK economy. The case for selling reserves to drive the pound lower hasn’t been made — not yet anyway.

But it is time to bury the demons of the past. Just like finance ministers and central bankers around the world, Brown and King should tell us what they think.

“The UK has had a strong currency for a long time now, and in some ways the bank may take it as a symptom of a strong economy,” said John Butler, chief European economist as HSBC Holdings Plc, in a telephone interview. “A strong pound is going to calm their fears over inflation, so I don’t think intervention is very likely.”

The pound’s surge against the US dollar can’t have escaped anyone’s notice. At the start of December, the pound touched $1.98, the highest since way back in 1992, when speculators forced the British currency out of Europe’s system of linked exchange rates. Nobody expects the pound to drop any time soon.

“The pound could rise further against the dollar in the near term, breaching the $2 barrier,” said London-based Capital Economics Ltd. in a note to investors. There are plenty of reasons why the pound should be strong. Britain’s economy has been ticking along, with decent growth and low unemployment. The pound has become popular among global central banks as a reserve currency: it is slowly turning into a kind of beefed-up version of the Swiss franc, a safe alternative to the big currencies. And strong house prices and persistent if modest inflation mean the Bank of England is likely to keep raising interest rates.

None of that means that a $2 pound is really to be welcomed by anyone except for the few of us planning to catch some winter sun in Florida.

The UK is an open economy that depends on trading to survive — and it is a lot harder to export when your prices are soaring. Indeed, there are already signs that the exchange rate is starting to have an impact on the economy. In October, manufacturing output fell 0.4 percent, the most in a year as exporters struggled to hold on to orders in the face of a soaring currency. Britain already has a huge trade deficit: a currency this strong means it is about to get a lot worse.

So what do the men in charge think? Not much, it turns out.

“Companies that export to dollar users have been hurt more than those who export to the euro region,” Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said last month in a speech to the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee. Well, thanks for that Mervyn. Good to see you’ve read a beginners guide to economics. We could have learned that from any schoolchild. What we want to know from the governor of the Bank, or the chancellor, is whether the pound has gone too high, not high enough, or is now about right. Brown has even less to say on the subject. Other politicians aren’t so abashed. French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin can hardly stop talking about the euro, and neither can Finance Minister Thierry Breton. Globally, finance ministers are often nudging their currencies one way or another. There is no reason, though, for Brown and King not to tell us what they think. The rise of the pound against the dollar is the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy this year.Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist.