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Toyota best long term bet

In terms of the environment, car companies are getting on the same page.The number of highly fuel-efficient vehicles continues to grow. Toyota Prius, Honda Civic Hybrid, Toyota Camry Hybrid and Ford Escape Hybrid top the government's list of the most fuel-efficient vehicles for 2007.

In terms of the environment, car companies are getting on the same page.

The number of highly fuel-efficient vehicles continues to grow. Toyota Prius, Honda Civic Hybrid, Toyota Camry Hybrid and Ford Escape Hybrid top the government’s list of the most fuel-efficient vehicles for 2007.

Talks about a three-way combination of General Motors Corp., France’s Renault SA and Japan’s Nissan Motor Co. failed, as did a brief discussion between GM and Ford about an alliance.

Nonetheless, expect that global carmakers will team up to develop environmentally friendly technology. For example, GM, DaimlerChrysler AG and BMW AG are jointly developing a hybrid system to compete with Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Ford Motor Co. Toyota already supplies its hybrid system to Nissan in the United States.

But that’s where carmakers put the brakes on cooperation and unity of purpose.

In sales, it’s every carmaker for itself. Each manufacturer is aware the next several model years will put in place trends likely to be with us for quite a while.

In terms of investing, US car companies are the most speculative choices because they continue to lose market share to imports. They have large inventories, especially in trucks, and no one expects a boost from the economy. Even with a recent decline in gasoline prices, no expert is certain of the road ahead.

Americans may want US carmakers to succeed, but will they buy their cars and stock?

“I think you buy stock in Toyota for long-term investment and GM for speculation because it is showing a dramatic turnaround,” said David Healy, first vice president and veteran auto industry analyst with Burnham Securities Inc. “Ford may not get the bridge financing it needs and is a bankruptcy waiting to happen, so I wouldn’t touch its stock with a 10-foot pole.”

The question is whether GM, which has cut its hourly payroll and launched new SUVs, can continue recent momentum. GM investor Kirk Kerkorian, who championed the failed Renault-Nissan combination, continues to demand shareholder value and corporate change.

Ford, with sales of its Ranger pickup at a 24-year low, has a lot riding on its new Edge crossover utility vehicle that will battle the likes of Toyota’s RAV4. Even with new Chief executive Alan Mulally from Boeing in charge at Ford, some critics say the plan offering buyouts to 75,000 US hourly workers doesn’t go far enough. The company may not have enough time financially to implement needed changes.

While DaimlerChrysler eventually will do well, experts said, thanks in part to its new small SUVs, it has stumbled badly, and Healy expects “horrible” results the next couple of quarters.

“I have a ‘buy’ on GM stock with a price target of $40 a share, a ‘sell’ on Ford and a ‘hold’ on DaimlerChrysler,” said Kevin Tynan, senior auto analyst with Argus Research. “I don’t want to be a doomsayer, but because imports have yet to roll out their best trucks, the pickup truck market that domestic manufacturers dominate is going to come under pressure.”

Because the US Big Three have been unable to deal effectively with market pressure from “the Toyotas of the world,” Tynan said, expect their market share losses to continue.

GM has been most aggressive with cost-saving initiatives, while Ford is just getting into them, Tynan said. DaimlerChrysler’s talks with the United Auto Workers broke down in September but have been restarted in an attempt to reduce the $2.3 billion it spends on US worker health care.

“GM is in the fourth inning of a turnaround and its stock is a little ahead of itself, while Ford is just taking the field and its stock could have some momentum,” said Jon Rogers, auto analyst with Citigroup. “We have GM rated ‘sell’ and Ford rated ‘hold,’ though Ford will have to demonstrate progress in restructuring and execution of its cost-cutting.”

While US carmakers may be closing the quality gap with imports, an entire generation of Americans still remembers the lagging quality of American cars in the 1980s, Rogers said. Changing that perception will be a multiyear process with consistent progress required.

“Domestic carmakers must undergo a painful change as they move from highly profitable truck products to less profitable smaller products,” Rogers said. “For example, Ford is doing well with its Fusion/Milan/Zephyr platform, but it will have to sell three Fusions for every Explorer SUV that somebody doesn’t buy.”

Toyota and Honda have strong balance sheets and popular vehicles in tune with the times, though their profits are subject to significant global currency risks. They have avoided incentive programs. Comparatively small in size, Honda is a company that always needs to be prudent and accurate in its strategy.

Among Wall Street analysts, General Motors (GM), whose shares are up 71 percent this year, receives a mixed recommendation of four “strong buys,” two “buys,” seven “holds,” one “underperform” and one “sell,” according to Thomson Financial.

Honda Motor ADR (HMC), up 21 percent this year, has one “strong buy” and one “hold,” while Toyota Motor ADR (TM), up nine percent, gets two “strong buys” from analysts who track it.

DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX), up three percent this year, receives three “strong buys,” two “holds” and one “underperform.” Bringing up the rear, Ford Motor (F), up eight percent, gets six “holds,” five “underperforms” and three “sells.”Andrew Leckey answers questions only through the column. Address inquiries to Andrew Leckey, P.O. Box 874702, Tempe, Arizona 85287-4702, or by e-mail at andrewinv<$>[AT]aol.com