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Class of 2005 have the 'best' risk models - expert

The Bermudian start ups known as the Class of 2005 have some of the most advanced and best thought through technology in the sector, according to a leading expert in the field.

Peter Nakada, managing director and senior vice president of RMS Consulting, said that many larger companies were finding it difficult to change their systems "mid stream".

"It is like trying to change the engine in a car while it is going at 60 miles per hour," he told The Royal Gazette. "The Class of 2005 spent the first six months of their existence building their systems from the ground up and as a result this group of Bermuda reinsurer are technically more advanced."

Nakada, is responsible for business development and client service delivery for the consulting business of RMS, which provides catastrophe modeling for the industry.

He is building new advanced systems that help improve risk assessment for their clients.

He said that, as Hurricane Katrina proved, models could be off. "They are not crystal balls, but tools to be used in risk transfer." Nakada added that RMS Consulting had been formed after Hurricane Katrina to help companies understand how models work, how to get the most out of them and interpret them.

He said that the quality of original data inputted was "appalling" and led to assumptions made further up the chain of risk management being based on faulty data.

On spot checks he had carried out on inputting property insurance data, such as type of metal used for the structure, type of windows and doors etc used to evaluate a property for an insurance policy, his team had found an 80 percent error rate.

What RMS is now intending to do is build a global data base of buildings around the world, a kind of Google World for insurers, that will be able to zoom in and give the details of any building on any street in any town or city.

They are already gathering data in US, buying or exchanging building information from insurance companies, getting it from state planning boards as well as any other sources they can find.

This data is to be inputted so that insurance and reinsurance companies can enter an address and all the information on a structure will automatically appear.

"For a single property you have several evaluations done every time there is a policy drawn up," he said. "This is a huge waste of time." RMS hopes that this new product, which will start collecting data in the States, before moving on to Europe in two years time, will become an industry standard tool.

He says that this kind of technology will bridge the gap many companies have between the person on the ground gathering data and the risk assessors, who often do not even have access to the valuable information as it is inputted into different computer.

"Imagine if, say, a hurricane were about to make landfall, and you were able to look up a specific street, and see what the structures were made of, how many windows it had, if it had storm shutters, what it was made of structurally. You could evaluate the risk much more quickly, have an idea of the kind of damage the wind and water would have as put a price on it hours before it was even due to hit." RMS is hoping to convince insurance companies to part with their data by saying the system would help them get a better price on their reinsurance.

"One of the problems has been the lack of technology in the industry," he said. "The industry grew up as a relationship business rather than a science-driven one. Compared to banking where it is science driven, we are miles behind."