Microsoft will get its way in the end — but how long will Yahoo hold out?
It is pretty obvious how the epic Microsoft bid to takeover Yahoo will turn out. Microsoft will win. Microsoft has to win since to fail would put question marks over the company's leadership and direction.
But in the meantime it promises to be a nasty battle over price, one that all of the commentators like myself will enjoy while it lasts. Google will do everything it can to prevent a major potential competitor from taking a giant leap into what it had previously considered as its internet space, meaning a good chunk of the terrain.
It would have been bad for the development of the internet and technology if Google were to be allowed to become the dominant provider, just as Microsoft took over the desktop and office software business. It's a standard economic mantra that a lack of competition leaves people at the mercy of the few or one, resulting in high prices (read high margins), frequent costly upgrades, and a disinclination to respond to user needs by fixing problems.
Of course I have adapted the said mantra to my needs, but you get the point.
I'm of two minds about whether it would be good for Microsoft to go after Google's space. Would this result in a better internet? I don't know. But even if the Microsoft monolith were to capture the same size of business, and develop competing online tools (think of Google's communications tools, maps, YouTube and so on), it would give it a commanding presence from desktop to cyberspace.
Google would eventually crumble under the might of Microsoft's weight and greater financial stability.
Microsoft would be able to snap up all those offerings that Google has been so far nimbler at bringing under its wing, or better yet, developing itself and creating a whole new category on the web.
I am a bit surprised that Yahoo's management has rejected Microsoft's approach, hence turning it into a hostile bid. Please note that I say "management" rather than Yahoo as shortened by most media.
We won't really know if Yahoo rejects the offer until shareholders vote to accept or reject. They are the real owners and should decide whether their management may hold out in such situations because they 1) don't want to lose their jobs and bonuses in an eventual takeover; 2) are looking for a personal pay-off by being kept on as 'consultants' for a respectable time (along with the bonuses) after the takeover; 3) really believe they have not failed shareholders.
Of course, Yahoo's management may actually be doing the right thing by holding out for a higher price. But with Microsoft willing to pay $44.6 billion for the company, about 60 percent above the current share price, that motive is difficult to see. It seems a rather decent offer given Yahoo's downward slide in performance.
Some analysts however believe that because Microsoft cannot lose this fight, such a strategy might actually work. Could Google put in counter offer? Not likely, as this might turn the eyes of regulators on to Google's growing dominance of web space.
Regulators will be the only one to put a stop to the Microsoft move. That is the only real question mark, and one I assume the company's lawyers have already nailed down to the positive. As an unrelated aside, I love this quote by Siva Vaidhyanathan, a cultural historian and media scholar at the University of Virginia. He made the criticism in relation to Google's philanthropic arm to concentrate on a few meaningful aid projects. "It's wonderful that this company is devoting massive resources to fixing big world problems, but they are taking an engineer's perspective to them," said Vaidhyanathan, as quoted by various media organisations. "Machines and software are not always the answer. Global problems arise from how humans have undervalued each other and miscommunicated with each other."
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A survey of consumers about their expectations reveals exactly what you would expect, that 84 percent expect their online enquiries to be answered within 24 hours.
The survey of 7,637 consumers in Europe found that customers behave in a similar way online as well as offline. They will eventually walk away if they are not attended to within a reasonable time. If making an online enquiry, with a specific product question or request, only 16 percent felt that a response after 24 hours was satisfactory.
The research went on to question how long people are prepared to wait, after making an online enquiry, before they contact a competing business. The survey found that consumers also demand a speedy reply, with 42 percent claiming to shop elsewhere after an hour.
Now that's scary if you do not have an automated response system to at least acknowledge that something is being done about their request. The survey was done by Lifestyles Online.
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