Exchange facing challenging 1995
if not, it should at least be interesting.
As the year end has brought a quieter market place, 1994 will be remembered as the year that the Exchange came in like a lion and went out like a lamb.
In the first seven months of the year, the Exchange eclipsed the previous entire year, in terms of the value of securities traded.
Through July, more than $60 million worth of securities were traded, but just $18 million have changed hands since.
One observer noted that a number of outside brokers may be on vacation for the Christmas period, creating the slow movement at present. Outside brokers are those independents outside of the banks.
Also stocks generally rally near the end of the year, firming up prices, but this period has been characterised by a dip, and in some cases, a slide in pricing.
Trading in general has become very light.
But analyst Mr. Mark Melvin of Bermuda Investment Advisory Services (BIAS) notes Bermuda is part of the outside world and since the world has seen a terrible year, it is not surprising that the BSE has performed poorly.
He also noted the diversion of money into new stock issues and increasing capital requirements as positive for the future because it means several new active listings.
He said money could have been channelled into existing stocks, a move that could have bolstered their prices, but added there still has been a large increase in the number of people who are shareholders on the exchange.
"The fact that share prices have been languishing a little bit I don't think is necessarily a reflection on the quality of the local exchange or the stocks thereon,'' he said.
"It could be just the fact that local investors have now had their appetites whetted, and they looked at it and thought they could place their money elsewhere.'' He remains optimistic about half a dozen issues for 1995, which have the required level of liquidity to will make their share prices move up.
Others traders say that investors may have come to believe that the days of expectations of double digit returns are over, meaning the expectation of guaranteed profits from investments are over.
One market watcher remarked that the banks have been too busy pumping major funds into resources to concentrate on the BSE.
But it was suggested that 1995 could be the year the BSE shows its true colours because it is expected that outside brokers will be allowed to become members.
"As soon as they become members, they will be beholden to the exchange and have to act under the exact same regulations that the three banks have had to this point, which has been very stifling,'' an analyst said.
"If the new regulations come out and they allow for the Exchange to have a market maker, someone in the middle to clean up odd positions, making it a more sophisticated market, then it will become a fantastic place to put your money.
"It requires not only overseas brokers, but the new regulations to come into effect.'' Investors will have to look carefully to the 1995/96 Government budget and cross their fingers over what the Finance Minister will do, come February, or not do toward further relaxation of exchange controls.
Analysts say that the opening of investment opportunities through IPOs, private placement of funds and an increasing awareness of investments outside of real estate and certificates of deposit, together with more recent rising interest rates may have all contributed to the slowdown in recent weeks of the trading of securities on the BSE.
But some believe that the new Budget may have a positive impact on the local investor, providing better, or competitive opportunities outside of the BSE and local real estate. That too could have a negative effect on the BSE.
Already, with the most recent changes, there were more people who were turning their money into offshore investments, or turning it into foreign currency and putting it into one of the plethora of mutual funds here.
1995 will also be another year that Bermudians will be able to export another $25,000 per person for overseas investment. Some are waiting to see if the Government raises the ceiling.