Optimism is needed about economy to increase trading
More international eyes have focused on the Bermuda Stock Exchange as world investors seek out stocks of good value.
But little is likely to happen to substantially increase local trading on the Bermuda Stock Exchange in the next couple of months, analysts agreed, unless there is a serious injection of optimism about the economy and the Island's future.
Even here at home, would-be investors who believe in Bermuda's future have a golden opportunity to enter the market, because of the attractive pricing of a number of the securities.
Mr. Jeffrey Conyers, the president of First Bermuda Securities Ltd., said: "Right now, Bermudian stocks are very undervalued by any manner of valuation.
That's not to say they couldn't go any lower. But vis a vis anywhere else in the world, they represent very good value.'' Said Mr. Mark Melvin of Bermuda Investment Advisory Services Ltd.: "There are opportunities, certainly. But there is nothing that is likely to happen, no expected news from the Government that would justify a real change in the market.
"Somebody looking to buy wants to be comfortable. There's got to be a catalyst to jump start the market and right now I can't see what that might be.'' Bank and utility stocks still remain good buys, but analysts say the market may not pick up for several months.
Mr. Melvin said: "There is some interest in Bermuda stocks from external sources. But the interest is very much a case of, `Now that you've got our attention, the stocks look good and sound good. The valuation seems attractive, but what is going to make them move up in price? Until you can come up with that answer, little will happen.'' Mr. Conyers, a member of the Exchange's Council said: "Bermuda Commercial Bank was bid at $6 and offered at $5.125 just the other day. But the reason is that they can't sell anymore to foreign buyers. It was a bizarre set of circumstances.
"After anyone does a rights issue, you tend to take a lot of the potential money that would go into that stock, out of the equation for a period of time.
"Anyone who wanted to buy Commercial Bank, had an opportunity to do so during the rights issue. So its going to take some time to get that demand back up there.'' Mr. Melvin said: "And I'm afraid that I don't see too many answers at the moment as to where the market is going. I think it is going to drift a little longer.'' Investment adviser Mr. Huw Williams at GulfStream Securities Ltd. agrees. He saw no magic formula in the near term.
He said: "It will probably take months for people to settle down and regain their confidence in the market. Doubts have been put in people's minds by the referendum, the change in leadership, tourism's problems.'' Mr. Conyers added: "We were also slowed by a couple of hurricanes. But despite tourism's performance, international business continues very strongly. There continues to be interest in Bermuda and there is little rentable space in the City.
"I still think that there are a lot of things poised to take off. What will precipitate it, I can't say.'' Mr. Williams assured: "There are stocks on the Exchange that provide value.
The bank stocks immediately spring to mind. The stock price right now is very close to their book value.
"They're substantial banks that are conservatively managed. They've got very healthy ratios and solid balance sheets and the large majority of their business comes in from outside of Bermuda.
"They would appear to be very good value. They are selling for very reasonable earnings multiples. So even if you were just reasonably optimistic about the long term future of Bermuda's economy, they would seem to be very good, long term buys.'' Market watchers saw the Bermuda exchange decline some five percent this year, while watching the US market climb 30 percent. The referendum was an immediate target for blame. But while many expected it, the market failed to rebound after the August poll. The volume stayed flat and pricing even drifted lower.
Said Mr. Williams: "If there is one thing that the market likes less than bad news, it is uncertainty, and there must still be some uncertainty in the air.
"There is still perhaps a fall out from the referendum, and a new Premier.
There still is some uncertainty regarding the tourism industry and the future of that and the effect it might have.
"And I think people may be a little nervous. It's just uncertainty, but uncertainty can hurt any stock market.'' Are people moving their money off the Island or directly into other types of investments? Said Mr. Williams: "It is a possibility that investment money is being diverted toward other avenues, and yet you look at the recent City bond issue.
I mean eight percent is not a bad investment return. It's not a bad investment.
"Locking your money up for 15 years may not be a world beating investment, but it was a reasonably good one. Not outstanding, but reasonably good and it was oversubscribed apparently by four times.
"So there is still money out there. People are still looking for a good avenue to put it into. But for some reason, they are not putting it into the local stock market.
"I can only assume then that they feel uncertainty. They are wary, for some reason, rightly or wrongly, about the medium term to long term prospects.'' MR. JEFFREY CONYERS -- President of First Bermuda Securities Ltd.