For them nothing is certain except the risks. They have much to moan about -- over-regulation, deep slumps in the market, picky environmentalists, and a public which doesn't quite seem to understand their problems. Not to mention the odd disaster or two.

But there must be money to be made. Why else would they stay in the business? "In my dark moments I think that we shipowners live in an impossible world and we really should do something else which would be less risky and even profitable,'' Ronald Bergman, chairman of Nordstro pm & Thulin, told delegates at a shipping conference on Friday. "But it is obvious that once you get the shipping virus in your blood it stays. It is like playing golf -- you always hope for a better round.'' Mr. Bergman should know. He's been in the business for 48 years. Nordstro pm & Thulin have been shipowners since 1850 and have survived the vicissitudes of the industry to own one of the largest fleets in the world.

He and others were asked to predict the next 20 years for the industry at the conference, suitably entitled "Navigating the Shoals of Corporate Risk''. His advice for those in the business was to maintain an even keel.

"Don't get carried away when the market enjoys one of these unfortunately short-lived booms and don't despair in the slump-market,'' he said.

"Investments made during recession normally turn out to be the best, provided you are still in business. So the most important rule, if you are a long-term player, is to have your cashbox sufficiently filled to meet even the most unexpected disasters because they do come now and then and always at the most inconvenient moment.'' He predicted future ships will be built much stronger than those of today.

Double-hulled tankers will become the norm. Diesel engines will become much more efficient. Technological advances will continue, but the major impact will be in the business itself as shipowing groups consolidate and increase in size.

"In liner, contract and cruise trades it is just impossible to remain a small owner with a few ships,'' he said. "This tendency will probably increase further within the next 20 years, which means unfortunately that it will be even more difficult to build up your own shipowning company from scratch.'' The good news is the market may become less volatile.

"The positive result of this clear development might be that the shipping market may become somewhat more stable and reduce the risk of reckless ordering of new ships,'' he said.

Roger Hancock, executive director of Singapore-based Osprey Maritime Ltd.

which recently bought Bermuda-based Gotaas-Larsen, believes technological advances will hurt the oil and gas shipping sector. In turn, the advances will also provide opportunity for those who can turn it to their advantage.

Political forces, protectionism in the developing markets comprise the usual threats to shipowners.

But the possibility of trans-oceanic pipelines and the increased use of land-based pipelines could pose a further threat to making a profit, especially in East Asia.

Technologically advances in exploration, drilling and production will also hurt the sector, as countries will be better able to exploit domestic resources, thus reducing the need for importing by ship.

One way to respond is for shipowners to diversify into the pipeline business, thus offering a wider range of services for their customers. "Indeed, by 2017 shipping may have ceased to be an industry in its own right, but rather be a part of a total supply logistics and distribution chain dominated by transport organisations encompassing all aspects of the movement, storage and delivery of raw materials and processed goods,'' he said.

Greater concern about the environment will mean shipowner will have to adapt their fleets to new demands.

Restructuring through consolidation into larger companies is the main way of responding to such threats, Mr. Hancock said. That way a company will have enough cash on hand to offer the types of ships the oil companies and power producers are going to need in the future.

Shipowners are also going to have to respond to the changing business environment by maintaining competent and committed crews, a problem endemic to the industry.

"Over the past twenty years or so we have come to rely on an almost nomadic group of people to man our vessels,'' he said. "These people hardly develop any sense of belonging to those companies on whose ships they work and are even less familiar with the crisis response procedures and other regulatory systems that must now be implemented.'' Bigger companies will be better able to train and develop their staff. "It is the recruitment, training and on-going motivation of these people that represents the greatest challenge of all, and woe betide those owners who fail to realise that fact,'' he said.

Mr. Hancock, who was unable to attend the conference at the last minute, had his prepared speech read by an organiser to the delegates.

About 100 delegates from around the world attended the conference hosted by the Bermuda International Shipping Association at the Sonesta Beach Hotel.