recession, yesterday warned residents to brace themselves for a cruel winter.

With the number of people needing social assistance tripling over the last two years, the committee's members spent the summer brainstorming to come up with ways to keep people employed through the winter.

Some of the measures will be announced later this month, Health and Social Services Minister the Hon. Quinton Edness disclosed.

"I think it is obvious we are in for a difficult winter,'' he said. "The number of people who are unemployed has increased substantially as a result of hotel closures and the weak construction industry.'' His forecast is shared by two businessmen who last week called for "bigger initiatives'' and "visionary thinking'' to get Bermuda through the winter.

Chamber of Commerce president Mr. Louis Mowbray and UBP chairman Mr. Ward Young warned this winter will be "the coldest ever''.

But, Mr. Edness said he agreed with Finance Minister the Hon. Dr. David Saul that things can only get better next year.

"I think this winter is going to be the worst part of the recession, but I'm hopeful it will start bottoming out in the spring,'' Mr. Edness said.

He noted that despite the Sonesta Beach Hotel's closure, it will be pumping $5 million into renovating the resort which will be a boost to the construction industry.

Sonesta, the Harmony Club and Marriott's Castle Harbour Resort are all closing for two to three months this winter. As a result, at least 1,000 hotel employees will be unemployed.

Mr. Edness added: "In 1990 when the recession set in, there were 300 people requiring social assistance. Now there are some 900 and I expect that number to increase in the winter. In addition, the number of people who have applied for rental assistance has increased to 700-odd.'' Among those who will swell the numbers are Bermuda Industrial Union members, because the union, according to its president Mr. Ottiwell Simmons MP, has "no money to give them''.

"It's going to be a bad winter, but the employers and Government are making it so with all the layoffs and not collecting union dues,'' Mr. Simmons said.

"We have compensated the people in the past but this year we have no money to give them. Practically all of our funds are drained because employers have been illegally refusing to deduct union dues from their employees -- they are out to bust the union.'' Mr. Edness said that over the summer the committee "considered how best to deal with the situation in conjunction with the private sector''. "We put forth programmes to keep as many as employed as possible and will be making announcements later this month. We have done an awful lot,'' he said.

He disclosed that one measure will see employers shorten work days or weeks and make pay reductions rather than lay off people.

Other members of the committee, formed in the first year of the slump, include the Ministers of Tourism, Community Affairs, Finance and Home Affairs.

Community Affairs Minister the Hon. Leonard Gibbons said his Ministry will help residents through the winter is by holding several money, job and stress management courses.

Mr. Gibbons said that because similar courses held last year "did not get to the people they should have'', he is looking into finding better and more far reaching ways to advertise them.

Labour Minister the Hon. Irving Pearman said efforts must be made to "urge employers to leave people as the last resort in terms of cutting costs''.

He said he does not yet have unemployment figures for this month and August, but they held steady over June and July compared with the same period last year.

And in an effort to make the Government Employment Office more efficient, he said a survey has been conducted, the results of which will be made public later this month.

"It will show how we are delivering our services to the unemployed,'' Mr.

Pearman said.

Banker Mr. Michael Collier added his name to the list of those concerned about Bermuda this winter.

He said he was worried that once the cruise ship season ends the slump will take a turn for the worst. And he said the fact there are 4,000 less foreign workers here is taking its toll "badly''.

"This is showing especially in the property situation,'' he said. Mr.

Collier, chief general manager of the Bank of Butterfield, also noted more people are having difficulty paying back loans, especially education loans.