Bermuda not insulated from recessionary chill
stage, as economic ripple effect dribbles on down the Gulf Stream.
A global company will look to bottom line costs every time to keep that earnings-per-share report smooth. We have all seen how the stock market punishes companies with earnings shortfall effect.
Today, Cisco alone saw the heaviest trading volume ever at 137 million. Some investors were buying, but not many. Companies can be here today, become acquired (Global Crossing), and slip away in a matter of weeks, taking their jobs with them.
Corporations today have massive amounts invested in the stock markets; they, too, rely upon investment gains to boost their profits margins, many have taken big losses in the last year. The global consumer does not feel wealthier in this type of economic climate and becomes reluctant to spend on big ticket items, of any kind.
Could we have a recession here again? How will a real US slowdown effect Bermuda? Are we sufficiently immunised? What can we do about events so far removed from our control? You (we) can take a realistic look at your personal economic environment, assess where you are and develop a contingency plan.
Let's start with your employment picture.
1. Be constantly alert to subtle changes in your workplace environment. If your boss becomes aloof; your co-workers seem more stressed or more overburdened than usual, there may be redundancies on the horizon.
2. Demonstrate value, volunteer for extra projects, stay extremely positive in manner and speech. In down times, no one wants to work with a negative, bitter individual.
3. Get to know other department heads or managers -- do not become complacent.
Just because you are 'good' friends with the boss does not mean that your job is secure.
4. Network with your peers, know what is out there for job alternatives -- never assume your kind of job will always be there. Processes change, processes become obsolete; companies get bought; companies merge with other companies; companies relocate to cheaper labour countries.
5. Keep your job skill levels absolutely current -- never, ever assume you are irreplaceable! You aren't. In fact, the more highly compensated, titled employee may no longer be considered an asset and will be expected to continually re-invent themselves. There are mid-tier executives still today out there who cannot work with computers. Learn, learn, learn.
6. Know your employer pension benefits, and increase your savings into these as if you had no savings at all -- do not be lulled into the midlife assumption, `if I just keep my head down, not make waves, I'll make it to retirement'.
In fact the reality is that at any age, you could find yourself looking for a job, as well as scrambling to acquire education and new skills to keep your salary even.
Be careful out there. This is not the time to develop an attitude; `to feel entitled', or to give your employer an ultimatum. It just may not work. Do not leave your job without a firm commitment from a new employer. We all joke about the Bermudian way; you know, walk from a job, knowing that another was right around the corner, for the asking. This may no longer be so. In a down economy, there may be quite a few people out there who would be happy to take your job, in a flash.
Let's face it, the cold reality is that if your employer's company is not turning a profit, the business is faced with two options: A. increase revenue by generating new business, or, B. increase revenue by cutting his/her number one expense cost, labour.
If your employer is not able to achieve a positive bottom line in a timely manner than he/she may be forced to place his own capital (if he has available cash after this bad investment year) into the business; increase his/her debt (if he has a sympathetic banking relationship); or watch his cash flow dwindle to zero. At which point, folks, he (and you) are dead in the water and out of business! Well, you must be thinking, for someone who is usually positive and upbeat, this is certainly grim and depressing. Readers, I worked with hundreds of clients during the last recession in New Hampshire. Some clients were severely damaged; it took them years to come back.
I know whereof I speak. The old expression `forewarned is forearmed' is just as applicable today. This is not doom and gloom, this is sensible thinking; this is having a financial plan.
Besides, if you prepare for the worst and expect the best, then you are ready for anything, now aren't you? What can you do personally to shelter yourself ( and your family) against an economic downturn.
Get your finances in order! Know the minimum cost it takes to get through a month and start cutting all the frills. Until you figure out exactly where you are, this is not the time to go tripping (or shopping for the fun of).
Besides, didn't you just spend a bundle over the holidays? Start right now to build an emergency cash fund that will carry you for a few months, just in case! 1. Make a list of all the little things that you `pick up' every day; snacks, coffee, lunch, parking, magazines, dry cleaning, treats. Add it all up, quite a lot, isn't it. Cut these expenses in half. There are loads of ways to do this. It won't be easy, but you can do it, tell yourself you must do it. Open statement savings and bank the savings, probably close to $50 or more a week.
2. Do you have high credit card debt? Stop charging anything immediately and cut up all but one or two cards. Negotiate a payment plan for the balances that you can handle each month and start paying it off. Do not accelerate these payments, if you can avoid it. You need every bit of extra cash for your `rainy day fund'.
3. Lucky enough to be getting a bonus. Bank it, don't spend it, don't pay down your mortgage early. Wait.
4. Cell phones are very expensive -- how necessary is it for you to have one or two? What do you owe? What did you do before you had one? Why you used a regular phone, so what if you don't call people back right away? In an emergency, they will find you. Put it away, pay off the bill. And bank the difference in your savings account.
5. Driving your children to school -- put them on the bus if you can. The savings in gas and traffic aggravation may just be worth it. What you don't want to hear (when my family was small, we took the bus and if we missed it, we walked the three miles home). Of course, the fare was only thruppence, back then. I warned you that you'd hear occasionally about `the not always so good old days'.
6. Groceries -- this is a hard choice for everyone. We all have our preferences, and let's face it, food is comfort. There is nothing like one of your favourite meals, on a dark and stormy night.
We all love soda, chips, candy, beer, wine, exotic coffees. Ever figure out how much potato chips cost per pound? Set a reasonable grocery dollar limit per week (no cheating, it has to be less than you are spending now), then divide it by seven days.
Don't cut back on everything, but make the rule, when it is gone, it is gone.
AND DON'T GO BACK TO THE STORE. Challenge your family to plan meals that come under the limit per day. Serve smaller portions, your entire family will be healthier for it. Bank all of the difference.
7. Do you Smoke? From a pure economic standpoint, two packs a day is $10.
Multiply that by seven days, it equals $70. Multiply that by 30 days, it equals $300. Multiply that by 365 days, it equals $3,650.
That's right three thousand six hundred and fifty dollars, not including the cost of extra toothpaste and dental cleaning, extra dry-cleaning, prescription inhalers, and secondary smoke affecting the rest of your family.
8. Like to read, take family trips to the library or pick up recycled paperbacks.
9. Shop yard sales and The Barn with a vengeance. We know this is not easy for families who have to buy school uniforms, but even now, there is a second hand market for these.
Have the courage to stand firm. If you have a family, they are going to protest, whine, complain and downright dislike you intensely. They will feel threatened, insecure, they may be made fun of at school, but if deep down you know that this is a way to protect yourself and your family from tough times, do it.
What happens if nothing happens? Because you have re-evaluated your job skills and ratcheted up your learning curve with an increased positive attitude, you just might find yourself receiving a promotion (or a fabulous new job).
This experience could be the start of a new direction in your life plus take a look at your now sizeable nest egg. I guarantee you will not look at anything the same again.
Readers, we are looking for suggestions and family practices on Penny pinching ideas, thrifty nutritious food purchases and stories of how your family economises.
Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or any other investments. Readers needing specific assistance should seek professional advice from their financial advisor.
*** Martha Harris Myron CPA is a Bermudian, a Comprehensive Financial Planner, holds NASD Series 7 license and is a US tax practitioner. She is Programming Chair for the Financial Planning Association of Bermuda. Questions regarding this article may be sent to Email: marthamyron y northrock.bm Reflection on recession: A couple of passers-by peer through a window to watch activity on the NASDAQ market in New York's Times Square on Thursday. even though the NASDAQ ended up in positive territory on Thursday, investors have been bracing for more losses as the US economy slows.